Azernews.Az

By Alimat Aliyeva

Coffee warehouses in Brazil, usually stocked with millions of bags of aromatic beans, are now nearly empty, Azernews reports.

After recovering from one of the worst droughts in recorded history, Brazilian coffee farmers sold nearly all their beans months ahead of the new harvest. This is due to global prices nearly doubling over the past 14 months, reaching a historic high.

Farmers in Brazil, the world's largest coffee producer, have exhausted their stocks to capitalize on record exports in 2024. However, Vietnam, the second-largest coffee exporter, saw its exports fall by 17.2 percent compared to 2023, as the country’s robusta coffee producers struggled with adverse weather conditions last year, according to the Reuters news agency.

Prices for Arabica coffee, the most popular variety used in most roasted ground coffee, increased by 70 percent in 2024 and nearly 20 percent this year, reaching an all-time high. Robusta, the second most popular variety often used in instant coffee, surged 72 percent in 2024 and peaked at $5,847 per ton on February 12 of this year.

"We’ve never had such low stocks in February, but the new harvest is still far away. We won’t have much coffee to sell until the next harvest starts. And it’s not just us, it’s everywhere," said Villian Cesar Freyria, sales manager at Cocapec, Brazil's third-largest coffee cooperative.

A similar pattern is observed at Cooxupe, the world’s largest coffee production cooperative, located in the state of Minas Gerais. While the warehouses may seem full, almost all the stock has already been sold and is simply waiting to be shipped, explains Andre Silva Pinto, storage coordinator at Cooxupe.

The analytical firm Safras & Mercado confirms these figures, estimating that 88 percent of the coffee has been sold, and brokerage firm Pine Agronegocios reports that only 8 percent of the crop remains on the market.

The reduction in exports means that warehouses may be empty by May, while the new harvest won’t begin until late May or June. The first shipment of fresh beans is expected no earlier than July, which will create additional challenges for the market. Coffee prices are expected to continue rising amid the shortages, with farmers negotiating with international buyers.

This shortage has intensified the volatility in the global coffee market. While the surge in prices benefits Brazilian farmers, it also puts pressure on consumers and international buyers, especially in countries that rely on affordable coffee imports. The low stock levels and upcoming gap in supply could lead to higher prices for consumers, with the added risk of disruptions in coffee availability. As climate change continues to impact crop yields globally, the coffee industry is also exploring new ways to adapt to these unpredictable weather patterns, including investing in more resilient coffee varieties and sustainable farming practices.