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by Dr Mehmood Ul Hassan Khan

IT seems that rapidly changing global geopolitics may have direct impact on Pakistan’s economy, society, security and politics, pulling towards sanctions and tough times ahead. The US Trump Administration signalling has already alarmed the policy makers of Pakistan on numerous issues mainly politics and security. The US emerging slant depicts a pro-Imran, demanding his release or some political reconciliation in the days to come. Additionally, Pakistan’s Foreign Office strongly criticized the USA for imposing new sanctions against its long-range ballistic missile program, labelling the move as “double standards and discriminatory practices.

Most recently, the US State Department spokesperson Mathew Miller announced the measures saying they were imposed under an executive order that “targets proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. Miller said the sanctions cover Pakistan’s state-owned National Defence Complex and three entities collaborating with it in the development of long-range ballistic missiles, including the Shaheen series of missiles. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry rejected the move as “unfortunate and biased.” The ministry statement said Islamabad’s defence capabilities are aimed at safeguarding Pakistan’s sovereignty and preserving peace in South Asia.

Moreover, it seems that the latest US installment of sanctions defies the objective of peace and security by aiming to accentuate military asymmetries. It fears that such biased policies will have dangerous implications for the strategic stability of South East Asia and beyond. Resultantly, Pakistan’s strategic program would be in the line of fire. The accompanying US State Department factsheet said the Islamabad-based National Defence Complex has worked to acquire items “intended to be used as launch support equipment for ballistic missiles and missile testing equipment” to advance the country’s missile development program. The other companies hit by the US sanctions are Affiliates International, Akhtar and Sons Private Ltd., and Rockside Enterprise, all located in Karachi. Pakistan’s Shaheen surface-to-surface rocket is capable of carrying nuclear warheads to a range of approximately 2,750 kilometres, with experts saying the range enables the solid-fuelled, multistage missile to reach targets anywhere in India and parts of the Middle East.

Comparative studies reveal that both India and Pakistan oppose and refuse to sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty, an international agreement aimed at curbing the proliferation of nuclear weapons. However, it is unfortunate that the United States has imposed these sanctions on a close and longstanding strategic partner like Pakistan. The move appears one-sided, discriminatory, and targeted, pressuring Pakistan’s policymakers to align with U.S. interests. Therefore, fostering national unity, ensuring political stability, achieving economic sustainability, and promoting social cohesion are essential strategies for navigating imminent diplomatic pressures and geopolitical manoeuvrings.

The Syrian fall has opened a new hot debate in the Middle East speculating a grand bargain providing a walk-over to Israel inching towards normalization and ultimately recognition. Sequence of events clearly indicates a secret compromise among the various regional power brokers in Syria giving a comparative advantage to Israel against its competitors. Unfortunately, Iran has emerged as the biggest loser of this sudden shifting of regional and global geopolitics ranging from Lebanon to Yemen, Syria to Iraq marginalizing its geostrategic axis of resistance.

It is feared that spillover geopolitical and geostrategic ramifications of Syria and emerging Middle East has direct and indirect policy readjustments for Pakistan in the days to come aligning with the Saudi’s next step for Israel. It seems that Asia Pacific is inching towards “New Ukraine” compelling all main stakeholders to secure their socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic vested interests. The deployment of latest ballistic missiles, building of new military bases, joint drills, military alliances, army supplies and close cooperation on security, nuclear submarines, space, satellite cooperation and last but not least, trying to change the current status quo of the South China Sea all may force Pakistan’s policy makers to change its “Look East Policy” in the days to come.

The emerging diplomatic wisdom speaks loud and clear that the Russia-Ukraine conflict is going to be settled very soon. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy changing stance to compromise with Russia and latest statement of the Russian President Vladimir Putin showing his readiness to compromise over Ukraine in possible talks with US President-elect Donald Trump on ending the war and had no conditions for starting talks with the Ukrainian authorities is a welcome move. Thus ‘Trump: The Art of the Deal’, seems to be once again in action.

In summary, the policy makers of Pakistan’s military and civilian should chalk out a holistic and comprehensive foreign and security policies tackling with the imminent fallout of Trumponomics and Trump-Geopolitics start consulting with iron-clad brother China because expected high tariffs and militarization of Asia & Indo Pacific and forceful encircling of the South China Sea have many common strategic points of collaboration and cooperation.

The author suggests that close liaison with Saudi Arabia must be established seeking some essential strategic cushions for the country in the Middle East. Increasing diplomatic ties with Türkiye and Iran would also be beneficial for Pakistan for a joint response. Economic ties with Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan would further diversify the country’s trans-regional connectivity, exports, economic integration and, above all, political bargaining in the future. Safety, security of the Chinese and CPEC projects would be game changer encouraging its private companies to invest more and more in the country gearing towards greater progress and prosperity. Economic self-reliance, security sovereignty and political stability must be pursued by rising above self-perceived indispensability and civil disobedience, working collectively for the nation and its people.

—The writer is President, Pak-China Corridor of Knowledge, Executive Director, CSAIS, regional expert: China, CPEC & BRI.