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Elnur Enveroglu

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Recent developments in the Russo-Ukrainian war have raised apocalyptic concerns worldwide. After green-lighting Ukraine to use long-range missiles inside Russia and Moscow's change in its nuclear doctrine, rumours spread in the media about the possibility of World War III. The White House and President-elect Donald Trump have not yet commented on the issue, but Trump's eldest son, Donald Trump Jr.'s remarks have heightened concerns. Trump Jr. noted that the military-industrial complex seems intent on ensuring the onset of World War III before his father has a chance to create peace and save lives.

Speaking to Azernews on the issue, Dr Frank Musmar shared his views on this already aggravated situation. He noted that however, he rules out that the world will witness a nuclear war, despite WWIII being nigh as the result of the tension.

“Let me explain why. The news lately highlighted President Biden's authorization to the Ukrainian military to use the system known as ATACMS to help defend its forces in the Kursk region in western Russia. The short-range ballistic missiles can strike targets 190 miles away with a warhead containing about 375 pounds of explosives but cannot travel as far as a cruise missile or intercontinental ballistic missile. It is a tactical move to push the Russian forces backward and force them to abandon more lands,” he noted.

Dr Musmar pointed out that even Russian President Vladimir Putin updated Russia's nuclear doctrine where Moscow will consider aggression from any non-nuclear state – but with the participation of a nuclear country – a joint attack on Russia; it is a tactical use also showing the Kremlin could respond aggressively to Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with American long-range missiles.

“From the first day of this war, I said that this conflict would be solved on a round table with an agreement implemented by the party with the upper hand on the ground. Moreover, I expected that this war would end even before knowing the election results in the USA and whether Democrats or Republicans won the election because the Ukrainians were exhausted, lost nearly 75% of their elite forces, and had a problem recruiting more soldiers. Moreover, financial support has exhausted the budgets of the USA and Europe, making future support a challenge,” he added.

He said that accordingly, any peace plan will be based on the line of demarcation between Russia and Ukraine that becomes like a demilitarized zone, and each party (USA and Russia) is playing now to decide the size of this buffer area based on the success of the ground (Putin said that any peace deal must acknowledge the territory Russia has taken).

“Moreover, the deal will guarantee that Ukraine retains its independent sovereignty, and Russia will get the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine, which does not join NATO or some of these allied institutions,” he opined.

As for the consequences in the case of Russia's resorting to the nuclear bomb, the expert did not confirm it as serious saying that Moscow is far more patient to choose this option.

In the end, he added that he believes it will be a year of peace and deals and agreement. He underscored that President Trump is a pragmatic man who seeks solutions through economic politics.