New Russia-Georgia war `very likely`
Chances are high for a new military flare-up between
Russia and Georgia, which already fought a brief war in 2008, a
Russian military analyst has warned.
Pavel Felgenhauer told RFE/RL`s Georgian Service prior to recent talks in Geneva between Russia, Georgia, its rebel regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, that the situation along the cease-fire line in Georgia remained extremely volatile and warned that another war was "very likely."
"[As long as] the cease-fire regime stays as it is, provocations, or what both sides understand as provocations -- clashes, exchanges of fire, in other words an undependable cease-fire arrangement -- it means there is a very high likelihood that all this could spill over into an armed conflict," Felgenhauer said.
He noted, however, that the Geneva talks reached a minor milestone with an agreement on "incident prevention" mechanisms intended to give international monitors access to the entire zone of conflict following last year`s Russia-Georgia war.
Hostilities erupted in Georgia`s unrecognized republic of South Ossetia in August 2008. Russian troops entered the region and pounded Georgian positions after Georgian forces bombarded the capital of the rebel province, Tskhinvali, in what Tbilisi termed as an attempt to restore the country`s territorial integrity.
Felgenhauer predicts that the next Russian assault on Georgia will be a "war to a victorious end." He predicts its main theater could be the road between Gori and Mtshketa just outside Tbilisi. But, Felgenhauer says, Tbilisi itself would not be the Russian army`s top strategic objective: "What is important is not so much Tbilisi. But west of Tbilisi there is the Tbilisi international airport [and] many airfields." This is important, Felgenhauer said, "because right now in South Ossetia we do not have a single permanent airstrip, as the terrain is highly uneven."
The closest Russian air base is currently in Beslan, in North Ossetia.
The best time for war, according to Felgenhauer, would be between June and August, when high mountain passes are free of snow. He said Russian forces would also need at least two months to wind down operations before winter returns in October.
The first war -- which Felgenhauer predicted long before its onset -- was seen as a consequence of Russia`s hostility toward Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his determined pursuit of NATO membership. But Felgenhauer says there is more to Moscow`s long-term strategy: "[Russia] may not like Saakashvili, we may not like NATO, but there is also another thing: Armenia is cut off; [Russian] troops in Armenia are cut off. There`s no transit by land. That means technology cannot be taken out of there for repairs or modernization, and technology cannot be taken in, other than by air. Such a situation cannot last long."
Further, Felgenhauer said Moscow is playing for time, predicting that another Russia-Georgia war is merely a question of time.
The Armenian bases are important to Moscow, Felgenhauer argues, as a symbol of Russian ambitions in the South Caucasus. Armenia is a close Russian ally, but its isolation could cause Yerevan to "start looking the other way," Felgenhauer says. Russia`s subjugation of Georgia would remove that threat, and would in turn isolate Azerbaijan, which is currently resisting Russia and putting out feelers to the EU and the United States.
Felgenhauer discounts the eventuality of an intervention on the part of the United States. He notes President Barack Obama`s main goal is victory in Afghanistan, and he will need to ship supplies and men through Russia and countries in its sphere of influence. In exchange, the thinking in Moscow goes, the U.S. will be willing to trade its interest in Georgia.
Thus, to Felgenhauer`s mind, a war is all but inevitable. "The only way you could avoid it," he says, "is if there`s regime change in Tbilisi -- or regime change in Moscow."
Georgian officials have denied the possibility of a fresh war. Defense Minister Vasil Sikharulidze told RFE/RL`s Georgian Service he does not think a conflict is imminent. But he did say Georgia is ready to respond to any Russian attack. "The Russian aggression and subsequent occupation of our territories, obviously affects our security situation in a very negative way," Sikharulidze said. "At the same time, we have to be ready to respond to and repel any possible Russian aggression."
Armed clashes are reported frequently within the Georgian-Ossetian cease-fire zone. Felgenhauer suggested that any clash resulting in Russian fatalities would constitute an immediate casus belli for Moscow.
Some Western diplomats in Tbilisi say they fear the same applies to Georgia. Tbilisi, they say, remains as highly strung as it was in August, when repeated provocations by South Ossetia prompted President Mikheil Saakashvili to authorize military operations -- with devastating results for Georgia.
Pavel Felgenhauer told RFE/RL`s Georgian Service prior to recent talks in Geneva between Russia, Georgia, its rebel regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, that the situation along the cease-fire line in Georgia remained extremely volatile and warned that another war was "very likely."
"[As long as] the cease-fire regime stays as it is, provocations, or what both sides understand as provocations -- clashes, exchanges of fire, in other words an undependable cease-fire arrangement -- it means there is a very high likelihood that all this could spill over into an armed conflict," Felgenhauer said.
He noted, however, that the Geneva talks reached a minor milestone with an agreement on "incident prevention" mechanisms intended to give international monitors access to the entire zone of conflict following last year`s Russia-Georgia war.
Hostilities erupted in Georgia`s unrecognized republic of South Ossetia in August 2008. Russian troops entered the region and pounded Georgian positions after Georgian forces bombarded the capital of the rebel province, Tskhinvali, in what Tbilisi termed as an attempt to restore the country`s territorial integrity.
Felgenhauer predicts that the next Russian assault on Georgia will be a "war to a victorious end." He predicts its main theater could be the road between Gori and Mtshketa just outside Tbilisi. But, Felgenhauer says, Tbilisi itself would not be the Russian army`s top strategic objective: "What is important is not so much Tbilisi. But west of Tbilisi there is the Tbilisi international airport [and] many airfields." This is important, Felgenhauer said, "because right now in South Ossetia we do not have a single permanent airstrip, as the terrain is highly uneven."
The closest Russian air base is currently in Beslan, in North Ossetia.
The best time for war, according to Felgenhauer, would be between June and August, when high mountain passes are free of snow. He said Russian forces would also need at least two months to wind down operations before winter returns in October.
The first war -- which Felgenhauer predicted long before its onset -- was seen as a consequence of Russia`s hostility toward Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and his determined pursuit of NATO membership. But Felgenhauer says there is more to Moscow`s long-term strategy: "[Russia] may not like Saakashvili, we may not like NATO, but there is also another thing: Armenia is cut off; [Russian] troops in Armenia are cut off. There`s no transit by land. That means technology cannot be taken out of there for repairs or modernization, and technology cannot be taken in, other than by air. Such a situation cannot last long."
Further, Felgenhauer said Moscow is playing for time, predicting that another Russia-Georgia war is merely a question of time.
The Armenian bases are important to Moscow, Felgenhauer argues, as a symbol of Russian ambitions in the South Caucasus. Armenia is a close Russian ally, but its isolation could cause Yerevan to "start looking the other way," Felgenhauer says. Russia`s subjugation of Georgia would remove that threat, and would in turn isolate Azerbaijan, which is currently resisting Russia and putting out feelers to the EU and the United States.
Felgenhauer discounts the eventuality of an intervention on the part of the United States. He notes President Barack Obama`s main goal is victory in Afghanistan, and he will need to ship supplies and men through Russia and countries in its sphere of influence. In exchange, the thinking in Moscow goes, the U.S. will be willing to trade its interest in Georgia.
Thus, to Felgenhauer`s mind, a war is all but inevitable. "The only way you could avoid it," he says, "is if there`s regime change in Tbilisi -- or regime change in Moscow."
Georgian officials have denied the possibility of a fresh war. Defense Minister Vasil Sikharulidze told RFE/RL`s Georgian Service he does not think a conflict is imminent. But he did say Georgia is ready to respond to any Russian attack. "The Russian aggression and subsequent occupation of our territories, obviously affects our security situation in a very negative way," Sikharulidze said. "At the same time, we have to be ready to respond to and repel any possible Russian aggression."
Armed clashes are reported frequently within the Georgian-Ossetian cease-fire zone. Felgenhauer suggested that any clash resulting in Russian fatalities would constitute an immediate casus belli for Moscow.
Some Western diplomats in Tbilisi say they fear the same applies to Georgia. Tbilisi, they say, remains as highly strung as it was in August, when repeated provocations by South Ossetia prompted President Mikheil Saakashvili to authorize military operations -- with devastating results for Georgia.
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