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Despite hopes for a temporary pause in hostilities, Russia’s brief Easter ceasefire has failed to produce any meaningful progress toward peace in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials reported nearly 3,000 violations of the ceasefire, while the Kremlin has ignored Kyiv’s calls to extend it beyond April 20. Air raid sirens were heard in Kyiv just hours after the truce ended, and explosions were reported in Mykolaiv, underscoring the fragility of the situation.

Yet amid the rising tensions, U.S. President Donald Trump struck a hopeful tone, posting on Truth Social:

“I hope that this week, Ukraine and Russia will reach an agreement. Then both countries can start doing great business with the prosperous United States, and they will make great fortunes!”

Trump’s message came a day after Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a unilateral ceasefire, which began on April 19 at 6 p.m. and was supposed to last until midnight on April 20. But Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed there were no orders to extend the truce. Ukrainian officials, for their part, claim the ceasefire was not implemented at all.

To explore the viability of Trump’s suggested peace breakthrough, Azernews reached out to international experts for their assessments.

US political scientist and foreign policy expert Peter Marko Tase criticized recent diplomatic efforts, pointing to a lack of clarity and sincerity among Ukraine’s European allies:

“The Paris negotiations of April 17 miserably failed to make any progress on the War in Ukraine. Ukrainian and European warmongers have endeavored to embark on a nasty propaganda campaign against Moscow without clarifying their objectives in the negotiations roundtable. Ukraine is fortunate to have on its side US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, the outstanding Ambassador Steven Charles Witkoff. Those who underestimate and tarnish the image of Ambassador Steven Witkoff are absolutely, gravely mistaken. Ambassador Witkoff is among the top three architects of President Trump's Foreign Policy and is extremely intelligent in dealing with Russian leadership and defending the interests of the Western World. Ambassador Witkoff, under the wisdom, guidance of President Donald J. Trump, in the last three months has accomplished much more than the eight years of Obama - Biden Administration and four years of the Biden-Harris Administration.

He also hinted at forthcoming breakthroughs through upcoming diplomacy:

"We must understand that the hard-working Trump-Vance Administration is laser-focused on solving the world's most pressing geopolitical matters, from the Iran Nuclear Program to the War in the Middle East and the War in Ukraine. Corrupt International Media Agencies, affiliated with WOKE and Cancel Culture, have historically never been so rude and disrespectful to a U. S. Administration, in a similar fashion with the ongoing humiliation that CNN and MSDNC (MSNBC) are abhorrently inflicting on the TRUMP Administration. We have to confess that there is chilling evidence the Obama-Biden administration jeopardized U. S. national security and demoralized the morale of FBI agents who were working to keep Americans safe. Democrats’ historic refusal to get tough on Iran emboldened its regime and allowed Tehran to continue funding global acts of terrorism, like what we saw on October 7, 2023. We should all be breathing a sigh of relief, President Trump is back in the White House to restore American strength on the world stage and hold Iran accountable for its evil acts, as well as fight corruption among the political elite of Ukraine."

Tase criticized the role of international media and the previous U.S. administrations, claiming they contributed to instability:

"We should all be confident that during his official visit abroad (the first of his second Term in the White House), President Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. During these historic events in the Persian Gulf, U. S. President Trump will make groundbreaking accomplishments, on the war in Ukraine and contain the Nuclear Weapons Program of Iran. In the next two weeks, Shuttle Diplomacy conducted by General Joseph Keith Kellogg and Ambassador Witkoff will make further progress towards peace in Europe and the Middle East. Let's not forget the disastrous architecture in U. S. Foreign Policy execution and U. S. National Security Strategy inherited by Obama and Joe Biden. These decade's long geostrategic blunders cannot be solved with a stroke of a pen. The International Community, especially the European Union, just like over 80 million U. S. Citizens who voted for President Trump, must have faith in the Trump White House and support Secretary Marco Rubio in his difficult role as Washington's diplomatic leader. The rivalry between the Three Seas Initiative - Trimarium - and the Franco-German axis is producing unnecessary friction among the EU member states; such a pattern generates additional complexities in the path towards a durable peace in Ukraine.”

Moscow-based political analyst Andrew Korybko offered a more measured view. He noted that the Easter ceasefire initiative, although unilateral, came shortly after U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the U.S. might “move on” from mediating:

“The Easter truce was a unilateral initiative by Putin that shortly followed Secretary of State Rubio telling reporters that the US might 'move on” from mediating if no tangible progress is soon achieved. The timing was coincidental but nevertheless beneficial for Russia since Putin was able to show that he’s not opposed to a ceasefire in principle like some have claimed. His refusal to implement a full ceasefire last month after Ukraine suggested such was due to his reasonable concerns about the nuances involved, namely, Ukraine exploiting it to rest and rearm. No matter that each side accused the other of violating the Easter truce, Putin might have been able to allay some of Trump’s reported concerns about his sincerity in reaching a ceasefire."

He added that Trump has previously shown impatience toward both Kyiv and Moscow:

"His comments could account for Trump’s hopes that a breakthrough could finally be reached as early as this week, the sentiment of which contrasts with Rubio’s remarks and Trump’s reaffirmation thereof right after. Trump also previously published posts suggesting growing impatience with Russia, but to be fair, he also published such about Ukraine before and verbalized related feelings too. Circling back to the Easter truce, it might have given Trump some fresh optimism for peace despite each side’s accusations against the other, and this could explain his latest post about a breakthrough. At the same time, he might also have simply gotten his hopes up since there’s a possibility that one, the other, or both still aren’t willing to agree to the compromises required as part of the US’ peace plan. The details remain unconfirmed but Trump and his team have said on several occasions that both sides will have to compromise. The process also remains opaque so speculation naturally abounds."

While Korybko acknowledged that hopes for a peace deal remain, he cautioned that both sides may not yet be ready to make the necessary compromises. Still, he suggested a turning point could be near:

"In any case, the US does indeed appear ready to soon unveil the final version of its plan that it’s been working on since late January, after which it’ll likely give the parties a timeframe to decide what to do. If no tangible progress is achieved, then the US might very well “move on”, which could take the form of cutting off aid to Ukraine in parallel with suspending strategic resource talks with Russia. These consequences could be aimed at pressuring them to reconsider the deal on offer, the terms of which might change depending on the course of hostilities by the time that they might return to talks.”

Image source: Financial Times