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Akbar Novruz

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The recent Russia-US talks in Saudi Arabia marked a significant moment in international diplomacy, as they represented the first large-scale negotiations between Moscow and Washington since the start of the war in Ukraine. Among the key topics reportedly discussed was the potential organization of a summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, a development that has drawn global attention. However, these talks are being closely watched by Iran, given Washington’s firm stance on Tehran’s nuclear program and the broader implications of renewed Russian-American engagement.

With Russia's strategic partnership with Iran under scrutiny, questions arise over whether Moscow might adjust its stance on Tehran in exchange for concessions from the US. The historical precedent of past Trump-Putin negotiations—where Iran’s role in Syria was reportedly discussed—only deepens these uncertainties.

In fact, just about a month ago, in an interview with Fox News, the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, took a relatively mild tone on Russia and China but was noticeably vague about Iran, saying, "That's another topic." While emphasizing his good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Trump still pointed out the flawed policies of Moscow and Beijing. Interestingly, he acknowledged Iran’s "ancient history" and praised its people, even hinting at the possibility of a deal with Tehran.

Given Russia’s long-standing opposition to nuclear proliferation, how likely is it that Moscow will take a firmer stance on Iran’s nuclear program under US pressure? Could Russia use Iran as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Washington, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine?

Moscow-based analyst Andrew Korybko weighed in on the issue, telling Azernews:

“Russia’s stance towards Iran has always differed from the US’ in the sense that it never suspected that Iran is exploiting its nuclear energy program as a cover for building nuclear weapons. For that reason, Russia helped Iran build its first nuclear power plant, and it also agreed to help dispose of the nuclear waste too. Therefore, no realistic possibility exists for Russia to reverse its position towards this issue, especially when it criticized Trump for pulling out of the JCPOA that it helped negotiate.”

Korybko also highlighted the extensive cooperation between Moscow and Tehran, emphasizing that “Russia reportedly relies on Iran for drones and missiles to replenish its depleted stockpiles. Those two also closely cooperate on the North-South Transport Corridor with India, signed an updated strategic partnership pact last month, and want to jointly manage the global gas market in the future. All of these align with Russia’s objective national interests as its leadership understands them to be, so it’s highly unlikely that Putin would sacrifice one or some of them as part of a deal with the US.”

Adding another perspective, Ilyas Huseynov, Sector Head at the Social Research Center, pointed out the significance of Riyadh hosting the Russia-US meeting, stating:

“It should be noted that the meeting held in the capital of Saudi Arabia is still under discussion, there is no final decision, and the important thing is that the next meeting has also been agreed. Riyadh is gradually becoming a place for discussing the main problems of modern and international relations, and this is not without reason. There are also a number of factors in the choice of Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is trying to see the United States as the main geopolitical actor and influential political player in the Middle East region, and Saudi Arabia's investment and financial support will be used in solving the Middle East problems.”

Huseynov also underscored the rapid signing of strategic partnership documents between key states ahead of a possible Trump administration, noting:

“A strategic partnership document was signed between Armenia, the United States, Great Britain, Ukraine, and Iran and Russia. It seems that these states were trying to implement everything until the Donald Trump administration took office in the Oval Office, and they succeeded, but now their implementation and execution are in question.”

On the issue of Iran’s nuclear program, Huseynov emphasized its importance for both Washington and Tel Aviv:

“Iran's nuclear program worries the United States and Israel, and we have witnessed Iran and Israel's missile strikes against each other during the Biden administration. Here, Washington was trying to maintain neutrality, but Tel Aviv and Washington will not accept Iran's possession of nuclear weapons. And sooner or later, Iran's nuclear program will be reconsidered. Here, either Iran will be persuaded to change its mind as a result of a deal, or these nuclear weapons will be destroyed in a radical way.”

Huseynov also pointed to China’s role in shaping regional dynamics, highlighting that:

“I believe that China's position on the issue of Iran is also quite important. Because during Trump's absence, we saw agreements reached between Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, and this was assessed as a success of Chinese diplomacy. Now, how will China see the activities being carried out against Iran from the outside, and how will it react to this?”

Finally, he acknowledged the potential for Russia to alter its stance under geopolitical pressure:

“Russia, of course, can also toughen its position against Iran in exchange for a victory in Ukraine, which may happen at the request of the United States and Israel. In other words, the states that were partners yesterday, those that signed the strategic partnership document, can stand face to face today, because politics changes often and conditions are undoubtedly changing.”

While diplomatic manoeuvring between Moscow and Washington continues, Iran remains a crucial factor in the equation. If the US seeks to pressure Russia into abandoning or weakening its ties with Tehran, it may face resistance from a Kremlin that views its relationship with Iran as a strategic necessity. But only time will show how will this idea shape....