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Akbar Novruz

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The Armenian Foreign Ministry has announced that a document on the strategic partnership between Armenia and the United States will be signed today in Washington. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken are scheduled to sign the agreement on January 14.

As the Biden administration's tenure draws to a close, this development raises questions about its motivations and implications for the region.

Elkhan Shahinoglu, Chairman of the Atlas Research Center (ATLASSAM), shared his insights on the matter with Azernews.

“The working visit of Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan to Washington on January 14-15 and his meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken and other officials here seems illogical at first glance. Because a few days after this meeting, Antony Blinken will be replaced as Secretary of State by someone else. After Donald Trump's inauguration on January 20, new faces will occupy state posts," Shahinoglu noted.

"In this case, what is the meaning of Ararat Mirzoyan's visit to Washington to meet with the old ones? Earlier, there was news that the US was planning to sign an agreement on a strategic partnership with Armenia. However, the State Department did not confirm this news. Ararat Mirzoyan, however, hinted that meetings would be held to discuss the document. It turns out that either Ararat Mirzoyan or the State Department is lying," he said.

The expert highlighted the strategic calculations behind Armenia's move:
"If Ararat Mirzoyan is meeting with the Secretary of State who will lose his post a few days before the change of power in the US, then there is something there. Official Yerevan is afraid that the Trump administration will strengthen the partnership with Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus. Apparently, they want to sign something with Washington now so that the Trump administration remains faithful to the agreement from the Biden era. However, for Trump, past agreements and treaties do not matter at all."

This development underscores Armenia's attempt to secure guarantees amid regional uncertainties and potential shifts in US foreign policy under a new administration. Whether this agreement will influence the balance of power in the South Caucasus remains to be seen.

Deputy Director of the Institute of Political Studies (Russia), Daria Grevchova, also shared her insights regarding it:

"Such a signed agreement, of course, creates a real threat in the region. We all see very well how the United States behaves in the international arena. This is the so-called projection of its power on other countries. And Armenia is precisely that projection of the United States, the US power in the South Caucasus region. And this is a very alarming call since we know that the United States is a great, strong power. And, of course, their main goal will not be peace and stability, but the creation of controlled chaos in the region.

"We see that Armenia will try with all its might to attract the United States to its side so that the United States will oppose Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus region. In this regard, various provocations are possible, precisely organized by Armenia in order to undermine relations between the United States and Azerbaijan. And Pashinyan is probably trying to show himself from the point of view of diplomatic power that Armenia is in allied relations with such a powerful and large state, and that Armenia can at any time turn to the United States for support, and the United States will provide this support.

"Perhaps, they will, if the goals and desires of the United States somehow coincide with the interests of the United States policy in the South Caucasus. We see that the signing of such agreements with a fairly strong partner that actively opposes Russia, and we have also heard government officials speak out against Azerbaijan, tells us that Pashinyan wants to sign a peace treaty, based precisely on the position of a strong partner who is not ready to make concessions to Azerbaijan. Therefore, the situation in the region with the signing of such an agreement is very tense and becomes really acute. It is also certainly impossible to say that this will be somehow positive, including for Armenia, because controlled chaos, as we see in the example of other states, never leads to anything good and beneficial for the country itself. And this will simply be, let's say, an arms race, a build-up of military power, and the creation of various kinds of provocations. Therefore, unfortunately, this behavior of Pashinyan shows that he is clearly a pro-Western politician and is trying to attract destabilization and a clear threat to security to the region."