Doha meeting shows geopolitical nature of oil market
The results of the past meeting in Doha is not disappointing,
but only shows that the oil market is also geopolitics, Cyril
Widdershoven believes.
"The continuation of the Saudi Arabia-Iran conflict, or even
possible heating up, has been playing a major part. Both parties
are now calling the bluff of the other. Iran needs to show to the
market that it can deliver, which a growing amount of analysts
currently doubts, myself included," the Middle East geopolitical
specialist and energy analyst, owner of Mediterranean Energy
Political Risk Consultancy told Trend on April 18.
At same time, he said, Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Mohamed Bin
Salman is taking to hardline approach, which is "you either comply
to Riyadh, or you will be confronted by new additional oil volumes
from Saudi Arabia".
The latter, based on analysis will not be as easy as maybe most
will expect, as infrastructure and export options are not yet fully
there, but still Saudi Arabia's overall system could increase
production for short term, according to Widdershoven.
He noted that Bin Salman also wants to force Iran into the overall
fold of OPEC.
"If this is not going to happen, Iraq and Venezuela will also be
taking Iran's point of view," Widdershoven said.
Oil producers on Sunday failed to reach a deal to freeze oil
output. The talks collapsed after Saudi Arabia surprised the group
by reasserting a demand that Iran also agree to cap its oil
production.
Iran was not represented at the meeting.
Earlier Iran's Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said that the country
didn't contribute to the imbalance on the oil market, thus would
not freeze its output.
Overall, Widdershoven believes that the market, especially the
financial markets, has shown a lack of rationality again following
the meeting in Doha.
When looking at the markets, financial analysts and hedgefunds are
over reacting, he said.
"At present, nothing has changed, but prices decreased by more than
6 percent. The latter is profit-taking of investors and
overreacting of the others. Market fundamentals are the same, and
the old parties (Saudi-GCC-Russia) did not indicate that they will
not keep to their old agreement of a partial freeze," Widdershoven
said.
"While at the same time, production elsewhere is down, and demand
is up. Seems that emotions have been calling the shots at present,
in politics, OPEC-Iran and financials," he added.
Oil prices slid on Monday after key producers failed to negotiate a
curb on their output, fueling concerns that this could hit the
recent recovery in the crude market, the Wall Street Journal
reported.
Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, fell 2.5 percent to $42.01 a
barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile
Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading down 3.2
percent at $39.05 a barrel.
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