Azernews.Az

By Sara Rajabova

Finding a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is in the spotlight of the international community due to the recent escalation of tensions on contact line of Armenian-Azerbaijani troops.

The meeting between Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents mediated by Russian president in the city Sochi was estimated to slow down the tensions between the South Caucasus countries. However, the political analysts' have different views regarding the results of the talks.

Some of them say that the negotiations were unsuccessful, while others believe that recent talks have resulted in the reduction of tensions on Armenian-Azerbaijani frontline.

Head of the Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute Vladimir Yevseyev said in an interview withDay.Az website that the main outcome of the trilateral meeting of the Russian, Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents was a significant easing of tensions on the front line.

Yevseyev said the recent developments on the contact line have resulted in numerous casualties among military personnel.

He stressed that in case of aggravation of situation even more, the armed conflict could have its own dynamics, and the likelihood of involvement of Russia and Turkey was quite large.

"As a result, we could get in the South Caucasus regional war with unpredictable consequences," Yevseyev noted.

Another, Russian expert also considered that main result of the Sochi meeting for South Caucasus countries was the reduction of tensions around Karabakh.

"Of course, all the details of the meeting are still not known, but it is clear that without the negotiations of IlhamAliyev, SerzhSargsyan and Vladimir Putin, the number of the victims in the conflict zone could increase," Head of the Center for Analysis of international politics under the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements (IGSO), Russian political expert Michael Neyzhmakov said.

He said through negotiations in Sochi a large-scale armed confrontation was avoided.

Speaking about Russia's role in settling Armenian-Azerbaijani disputes, Neyzhmakov noted that the Sochi meeting demonstrated Russia's role in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement and showed that Moscow is returned to the active mediation in conflict resolution.

Neyzhmakov said Moscow is not interested in the transition of the conflict in the "hot" phase.

He stressed that due to the Ukrainian crisis, the "hotter" Karabakh conflict would bring Moscow more problems, as it could get involved in two conflicts.

On Russia's role in the conflict solution, another political analyst said that with a mediation role on settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict Moscow tries to divert attention from the situation in Russia.

Senior fellow of the Atlantic Council's DinuPatriciu Eurasia Center, Sabine Freizer has recently said the recent violation of the Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line gave Moscow the opportunity to demonstrate its ability to promote war or peace in the South Caucasus.

She said the aggravation of tensions on Armenian-Azerbaijani frontline helped Russia divert attention from southeastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian troops are advancing against separatists.

"Moscow was very quick to assert itself as a sole mediator, summoning the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents to Sochi. That act circumvented the long-standing international forum for mediation on Nagorno-Karabakh, the OSCE's Minsk Group, which includes the U.S. and French governments. This should sound familiar: In 2008, after Russia invaded Georgia, it also then took the lead in the Azerbaijani-Armenian talks, succeeding partly in reaffirming Russia's centrality and influence," Freizer said.