Armenia brings its downfall amidst its ceasefire violation [ANALYSIS]
Russia's recent shifting away from its mediating role in the negotiations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, focussing on the conflict with Ukraine and the emergence of Western elements in the South Caucasus amidst these developments, is strengthening the chains of chaos in the region. It is no secret that Moscow has long, even for centuries, shown special care towards the Armenian nation, supporting Armenians in crimes against Azerbaijanis during the Tsarist and Soviet periods. The devastation of Azerbaijani territories during the 30-year Armenian occupation was due to Russia's adherence to its old habits.
However, in 2020, the Armenian army's provocations reached their peak. Despite mild warnings from Baku to Armenia during this period, there was no chance of turning back; Baku did not show tolerance this time, and the Azerbaijani army launched a counteroffensive. The Armenian government, always relying on support from Russia, found itself helpless and faced bitter consequences, albeit limited ones, for its actions.
The 44-day Second Garabagh War demonstrated that without the support of Russia and other countries, the Armenian army was powerless against Azerbaijani soldiers, and it took Azerbaijan less than two months to defeat the Armenian forces.
The defeat also led to growing resentment in relations with the Kremlin.
Russia's less intervention in the Second Garabagh War and almost leaving the anti-Armenian forces unequipped later led to the breaking of ties between Yerevan and Moscow. The Pashinyan administration realised the difficulty of maintaining its offence in the region without additional support. The situation had reached such a point that the country's prime minister and the forces under his authority could no longer sit comfortably in Yerevan, which was once the historical territory of Azerbaijan.
The second Garabagh War created a kind of vacuum for Western forces. The separation of Russia from Armenia caused this gap to be replaced by the West.
Thus, Western circles, seeking to squeeze Russia out of the region, began efforts to expand their influence in the South Caucasus. The Council of Europe, which had avoided discussing the rights of Azerbaijanis expelled from their lands over 30 years, interestingly, after the Second Garabagh War, stood up to defend the rights of Armenians who left Azerbaijani territories of their own accord. The financial and moral support sent to Armenia by the West, particularly France and the U.S., was beyond measure. Against this backdrop, politicians began sending criticism and threats to Azerbaijan for liberating its own lands from occupation.
It is pathetic that those who have gained wealth through colonisation and crimes are now backing a state like Armenia and revealing its true colours.
After the Second Garabagh War, while the West was busy preparing its plans, the Pashinyan government started taking steps towards peace. Following the meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in May, there were growing speculations that a peace agreement between the two countries would be signed. However, the 10-million-euro "gift" from the "European partners" to Armenia indicated that Yerevan would be under Western protection. Subsequently, the ceasefire was once again violated at the border, and accusations against Azerbaijan resumed. "Old habits die hard." Armenia, finding new patrons, resumed its provocations.
Russia reminds of its presence in the South Caucasus
On August 19, during his visit to Azerbaijan, the Russian president later called Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, followed by continued discussions with President Ilham Aliyev over the phone, signaling Russia's renewed desire to mediate between Baku and Yerevan.
It should be noted that during his visit to Azerbaijan, President Ilham Aliyev expressed willingness to continue peace talks in Moscow. Notably, Putin's recent call to President Ilham Aliyev might suggest that Pashinyan is setting conditions related to the peace process.
However, having been indulged in the West's care, the Pashinyan administration shows no desire to return to the negotiating table with Moscow. This explains why, yesterday and today, the Armenian side once again violated the ceasefire in the direction of Nakhchivan. When diplomatic manoeuvres are exhausted, Armenia's plan to resort to provocations and create tension has become habitual. This time, Yerevan intends to create chaos in the region and present it as a consequence of Russian-Azerbaijani cooperation, portraying itself as a victim.
US reaction
Additionally, the firing on Azerbaijani positions in Nakhchivan following Vladimir Putin's visit to Baku and the meeting between the Azerbaijani and Turkish foreign ministers are reactions from the West, led by the U.S. and France.
As Armenia increasingly loses control by trusting in the West's empty promises and a few-thousand-euro gift, the South Caucasus gradually turns to be a battleground between the U.S. and Russia, where the West is using Yerevan against Moscow.
However, those who desire bloodshed and war should know that Azerbaijan will continue to work for peace and stability in all circumstances. Despite the crimes committed against the Azerbaijani people over the years, Azerbaijan has once again extended a peace hand to Armenia. As long as Armenia has the choice for peace, it should seize this opportunity and make rational decisions. Otherwise, the foreign elements drawn into the region will not work in the interests of any nation but will expand the chaos, creating an inextricable chain of problems that will be most damaging to Armenia, which is already suffering from economic, social, and political collapse.
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