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Fatima Latifova

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Donald Trump is advancing in the US presidential elections. According to recent polls, Trump's current approval rating is 66%, while Biden struggles to gain 15%, and Kamala Harris's is 10%. This increases Trump's chances of becoming the US president. His election would undoubtedly have a significant impact on global political processes, including relations with Azerbaijan.

It should be noted that during Trump's previous presidency, there was significant attention to energy independence and the oil and gas industry in the United States. Azerbaijan, as a significant producer of oil and gas, is therefore a country of importance in Washington's eyes.

Armenian media is concerned about Donald Trump's potential presidency. Given the US policy last year, which aimed to increase its mediation in the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Trump's presidency could further escalate this desire.

It is worth noting that in November last year, James O'Brien's critical statements against Azerbaijan led to a decline in US mediation efforts between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Subsequently, official Washington attempted to restore its mediation role with apologies and requests addressed to Azerbaijan.

During NATO's recent summit, the meeting between the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the United States strengthened US mediation efforts. Matthew Miller, an official representative of the US State Department, mentioned that the meeting contributed to the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Interestingly, the Armenian lobby, which attempts to sway Europe and the US against Azerbaijan, maintains its composure. If Trump becomes president, he will likely focus on the idea of "America First," which does not align with the interests of the Armenian lobby. It appears that the Armenian diaspora is currently entrenched in the outcome of the US elections.

It should be noted that Donald Trump is expected to prioritise the global oil and gas sector, potentially leading to special support for Azerbaijan in the South Caucasus. Considering Trump's firm stance against Iran and his closeness to Israel, this could also facilitate the development of relations with Azerbaijan.

Currently, Armenian media speculates that Trump will pursue policies aligned with Azerbaijan's interests. Another reason for concern is Trump's inclination towards straightforward policies without attempting to balance interests, which could affect the Armenian lobby.

It should be noted that during Joe Biden's presidency, there was a period of stagnation in US policy. The Democratic Party exacerbated the chaotic situation in the country and allowed for an increase in migration.

In contrast, Trump aimed to prioritise US political and economic development, making his return to the presidency eagerly awaited by the American public and allies. It is no secret that Biden's lenient policies undermine Washington's status as a superpower and strain its relationships with other countries. Many people are surprised by his frequent gaffes and unusual expressions in his speeches. Biden even calls the people in front of him by a different name.

It is no coincidence that during an election rally in Pennsylvania, an attempt was made to assassinate Donald Trump, which President Ilham Aliyev described as a political violence act. This armed attack occurred not due to personal motives but specifically for political purposes during an election rally.

Unlike Republicans, Democrats have historically had more lobbyists advocating for Armenians. This suggests that Trump could become president without the support of the Armenian lobby, similar to French President Emmanuel Macron.

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