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Fatima Latifova

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The deadlocked process of peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia is reigniting tensions as well as making a dangerous hotbed in the South Caucasus region. It is no longer necessary to recall that Armenia has been the only party delaying these negotiations. Since the Almaty meeting in May, Yerevan has been postponing discussions related to peace and avoiding bilateral meetings.

It should be noted that Azerbaijan has supported all negotiation platforms involving the West, the EU, and regional states like Russia. However, experience shows that trilateral talks have not been sufficient to achieve any positive results in the meeting before. Undoubtedly, continuing negotiations directly between the two countries appears to align with the interest of Baku, despite Yerevan's sway by its Western patrons. The failure of trilateral discussions as in recent practices can be attributed to some contradicting opinions of the mediating party due to its national interests. It is no secret that many platforms have been organised so far, and the majority of them exhibited bias in matters between Baku and Yerevan, especially evident in James O'Brien's unfounded accusations against Azerbaijan, which cast doubt on the U.S.'s ability to serve as a mediator between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

The discussion of peace issues and Russia's goodwill to support peace talks during Vladimir Putin's recent visit to Azerbaijan are suitable for Azerbaijan. However, the Pashinyan administration, which leans more towards the West, openly shows an unwillingness to sit at a round table with its ex-ally.

This is evidenced by the recent polemic between the foreign ministries of both Russia and Armenia, regarding the Kremlin's insistence to open communication lines as agreed in the November trilateral document. This situation escalates tensions in the region, particularly concerning issues around the Zangazur corridor.

From Russia's perspective, Putin's request to Pashinyan aims to find a common ground in the region that suits both Baku and Yerevan's interests. But his proposal to open the passage between Azerbaijan and its exclave Nakhchivan, which indirectly implies ensuring Russia's presence in the corridor, does not align with the interests of Pashinyan and his Western allies.

It was expected that Armenia, seeking to distance itself from Russia as well as oust all Russian troops from its territories, would be unwilling to re-engage in peace talks mediated by Russia. However, the main reason appears to be the interests of the West rather than Armenia itself. Western elements aiming to reduce Russia's sphere of influence and establish their foothold in the region would first seek to sideline Russia and attract Armenia's attention. Armenia's complete withdrawal from peace negotiations, the lack of discussion on transferring mine maps to Azerbaijan, and the absence of information provided to official Baku about nearly 4,000 missing Azerbaijanis indicate that these forces have been somewhat successful in implementing their sinister plans.

The Armenian side is well aware that relations with Russia are in crisis. This is precisely why, just a few hours after the phone conversation between Putin and Pashinyan, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan called Tehran and sought to establish initial contact with the newly appointed foreign minister. The timing of this call suggests that Armenia intends to use Iran's support against Russian pressure.

While the deterioration of relations between Armenia and Russia may, to some extent, benefit the Western forces, the growing rifts between Yerevan and Moscow promise no more than crisis and disruption of stability in the region. It is anticipated that Yerevan's Western allies will not remain silent in response to Russia's pressure on Armenia. Subsequently, provocations are already ongoing in the region and Armenia's shelling of the Azerbaijan Army positions along the border is expected to increase. In this context, escalating inter-country tensions in the region do not serve the interests of any party.

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