Experts: OPEC+ to limit verbal interventions in oil market for now
Abbas Ganbay
Read more"OPEC+ countries will take a wait-and-see attitude against the backdrop of stable prices after the voluntary cuts in oil production announced at the meeting in November," experts polled by TASS hold such an opinion, Azernews reports.
At the same time, proposals on new measures to reduce production will be heard but will remain only verbal interventions, as decisions on new cuts may meet resistance within OPEC+.
At the meeting on November 30, 2023, several OPEC+ countries decided on additional voluntary cuts for the first quarter of 2024, the volume of which will total 2.2 mln bpd.
According to Sergey Kondratyev, head of the economic department of the Institute of Energy and Finance, OPEC+ countries are now in a difficult situation. According to him, the alliance members have demonstrated their influence on the market and shown that they can stabilise the situation, but at the same time, they are close to being trapped in the trap from the 1980s, cutting production and making room in the market for other producers.
"I think that proposals to cut quotas will be heard, but whether they will be feasible, I am not sure. The opposition to a new cut within OPEC+ is already formidable and will only grow. Therefore, I think that now we should expect more verbal interventions," the expert suggests.
Finam analyst Nikolay Dudchenko noted that new cuts in oil production by OPEC+ may be needed only in case of an even stronger decline in the price. "As long as the oil price is stable, OPEC+ is likely to broadcast a wait-and-see attitude," the expert believes.
In turn, Stanislav Mitrakhovich, a leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund and a researcher at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, expects new steps to limit oil production from OPEC+ already in early 2024.
The expert emphasised that the alliance's November decisions did not impress the market. "OPEC+ will have to gather, in my opinion, already at the very beginning of 2024. I do not rule out that when Russian President Vladimir Putin paid a visit to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, it is possible that the parameters of a new deal were also being probed there beforehand. I think it is more likely that there will be such a deal, and already at the beginning of the year," Mitrakhovich believes.
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