The Azerbaijani government improved the forecasts for the country's economic growth
Trend:
The Azerbaijani government has significantly improved the forecasts for the country's economic growth for the next two years, follows from the "Medium- and Long-term Strategy for Managing Public Debt", approved by the President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev.
So, if before the government expected GDP growth in 2018 at 1.5 percent, now the forecast is increased to two percent. For 2019, the forecast was revised from 1.4 percent to 3.1 percent.
The forecasts of the Azerbaijani government on GDP growth for 2018-2021:
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
|
|
Current forecast |
||||
|
Nominal GDP (mln. manats) |
74 646,9 |
75 389,2 |
81 245 |
84 973,1 |
|
Real GDP growth rate (%) |
2,0 |
3,1 |
3,5 |
2,4 |
|
Previous forecast |
||||
|
Nominal GDP (mln. manats) |
69 396 |
72 727 |
77 403 |
81 053 |
|
Real GDP growth rate (%) |
1,5 |
1,4 |
3,7 |
2,9 |
"In 2018 and the medium-term period, the positive dynamics of economic growth will be maintained. Along with local forecasts, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund predict economic growth in Azerbaijan," the document says.
It is worth to note, that recently the economy of Azerbaijan demonstrates stable growth. International rating agencies Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor's and Moody's note positive changes in the country's economy. In particular, S&P forecasts Azerbaijan's average GDP growth at the level of three percent until 2022. At the same time, unemployment will stay at about five percent. Moody's increased its forecasts for the country's economic growth and Fitch notes that the country will continue to have broad political and social stability.
According to the State Statistics Committee, in January-July of 2018 Azerbaijan's GDP grew by 0.2 percent. During the year, many sectors of the economy demonstrated growth. Thus, industrial production grew by 0.7 percent, the agriculture sector - by 6.5 percent, the information and communication services sector by 7.2 percent, and freight transportation - by 1.2 percent. The incomes of the population increased by 9.4 percent during the year.
According to the strategy, the government also expects inflation to fall in the medium term. As noted, this will also create the ground for further lowering the discount rate [now it is 10 percent] and for moving from a narrowing monetary policy to a neutral one.
The forecast for inflation for 2018-2021:
|
2018 |
2019 |
2020 |
2021 |
|
|
Inflation (average annual, in%) |
6,1 |
4,7 |
3,3 |
3,1 |
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