Treasuries stay lower as economists predict hiring quickened
By Bloomberg
Treasuries stayed lower after falling yesterday before a government report that economists said will show America added the most jobs in September in three months.
U.S. sovereign bonds snapped a rally from earlier in the week on speculation today's data will support the case for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next year. The central bank's asset purchases have been more successful than expected in reducing the jobless rate, as policy makers prepare to stop buying bonds at the end of this month, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said.
"The policy trend will push Treasury yields higher," said Will Tseng, a bond portfolio manager in Taipei at Mirae Asset Global Investments Co., which has $65.1 billion in assets. Tseng said he prefers emerging-market sovereign and corporate bonds over Treasuries.
The benchmark 10-year yield was little changed at 2.44 percent at 7:08 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 2.375 percent note due in August 2024 was 99 14/32. The yield climbed four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, yesterday.
Australia's 10-year yield rose four basis points to 3.46 percent.
Japan's five-year yield fell one basis point to 0.145 percent, the lowest level in almost two months. The central bank bought 3.5 trillion yen ($32.2 billion) of bills today as part of its own debt purchasing, a record purchase in Japan's own bond buying program.
U.S. employers added 215,000 workers last month, versus 142,000 in August, based on a Bloomberg News survey of economists before today's Labor Department report. The unemployment rate held at 6.1 percent, matching a six-year low, based on the responses.
Very Patient
Fed policy makers are being "very patient" about raising interest rates, considering that they are ahead of schedule on driving down unemployment, Bullard said yesterday in Tupelo, Mississippi. Bullard is not a voting member of the Fed's policy- setting committee this year.
The central bank said in September that it will end the debt-purchase program it has used to support the economy after its next meeting Oct. 28-29 if employment and inflation are going in the right direction.
Fed policy makers in September boosted their median estimate for the benchmark interest rate for the end of 2015 to 1.375 percent, compared with 1.125 percent in June. They have kept their target for the rate, which banks charge each other on overnight loans, close to zero since December 2008.
Weekly Gain
Treasuries still headed for a third weekly gain amid mixed data on the world's biggest economy. Two gauges of manufacturing for September slowed and consumer confidence fell. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index has dropped 1.9 percent this week, the most since the period ended Aug. 1.
Ten-year yields will rise to 2.78 percent by Dec. 31, based on a Bloomberg survey of economists, with the most recent forecasts given the heaviest weightings.
"Yields are going to rise because the Fed is going to start tightening policy," said Hans Goetti, the Singapore-based head of investment for Asia at Banque Internationale a Luxembourg SA, which has $40 billion in assets. The company is "underweight" Treasuries, he said.