Bright future hidden behind sanctions
By Laman Sadigova
The world breathlessly observes the century’s longest negotiations between Iran and P5+1 on Iran’s nuclear program.
Iran’s position and desire to come to the deal is quite predictable and explainable. The sanctions badly hit Iran’s economy and the country is trying to recover the situation by eliminating from them.
What is not entirely clear is the EU and the U.S. sudden interest in this deal. Let’s take a look…
Oil prices are in the grip due to two main problems occurring now – military operations in Yemen and the fact that Iran remains one step before the conclusion of "nuclear deal".
The fact that Iran and P5+1 are to finish the deal on the nuclear program, puts additional pressure on the price of "black gold".
In case if the negotiations come to an end releasing Iran from the Western sanctions, the commodity market will receive an additional one million barrels of oil. Decadently, oil is what the EU needs right now.
Oil Minister Bijan Namdar claimed that Iran can increase the oil exports by 1 million barrels per day for a few months in case of sanctions are lifted. Quite impressively, though.
Resolution of the Iranian crisis may be a major milestone in recent political history: it would resolve one of the most difficult global conflicts, and could change economic and political situation in the region and even in the world.
Also, one more possible reason of the U.S. softening towards Iran may be the U.S. hidden wish to find an ally in the fight against the ISIS. The worsening situation in the Arab countries raises the Western countries’ concerns.
Despite very tense relations between the U.S. and Iran, their interests intersect in this issue. Notwithstanding the fact, that these two countries both have political interest in Syria, the fight against the terrorists may cross them in one point. It has to be mentioned, that the Arab league does not allow Iran to affect on solution of these issue. Moreover, the president of Yemen accuses Iran in the ongoing events there.
Who knows, these two controversially different countries -- Iran and the U.S. -- may become some kind of partners.
Returning to the oil subject, it should be noted that Iran’s neighbors will have benefits from release of sanctions. Also, resolving nuclear issue opens great alternatives for Azerbaijani investors and big projects. Iran will be able to transport its oil and gas through the southern gas corridor, which is now in the stage of shaping, opened for new energy suppliers. This corridor can capture Iran’s attention.
Iran’s economy can also become a good space for investments.
For instance, nowadays Azerbaijan is a reliable partner in energy and business sector. The possibility of Iran to become an even closer business partner as it used to be quite expected.
Also, Azerbaijan can become a connection link between the West and Iran, with having a good geopolitical position. The EU is seeking for alternative ways of gas supplies, bypassing Russia. Since Azerbaijan does not have enough energy resources to provide the whole Europe, Baku can face a partner in the face of Iran.
Undoubtedly, after the lifting of sanctions, Iran will become an area for competitors wishing to cooperate with it.
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