Azernews.Az

By Sabina Idayatova

A convention of Armenia's governing Republican Party has nominated President Serzh Sargsyan to run for another term in office at the elections scheduled for February 18, 2013.

The party delegates unanimously nominated the party chairman and incumbent president and approved his bid to stand in the elections.

At his speech before the convention, the leader of the country, which occupies part of neighboring Azerbaijan's territory, said the military-political situation necessitates more combat-ready and constantly improving armed forces in Armenia.

"Armenian armed forces will not engage in passive defense, and will be able to spread security across the region. The replenishment of the armed forces with modern weapons and machinery, including domestically produced ones, will be continued," Sargsyan said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in bitter conflict, which emerged in 1988 when Armenia made territorial claims against its South Caucasus neighbor. The two countries fought a lengthy war that ended with the signing of a fragile cease-fire in 1994. Armenian armed forces have since occupied over 20 percent of Azerbaijan's internationally recognized territory. Armenia has not yet implemented the U.N. Security Council's four resolutions on a pullout from Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven surrounding regions.

Peace talks, brokered by US, Russian and French mediators, have been largely fruitless so far.

Judging by his belligerent mood, Sargsyan is likely to spend much of the country's small budget in the next five years on the military.

Sargsyan expressed his desire for cessation of the armament race in the region and reopening of the borders.

Armenia has ended up in an economic blockade due to its hostile policy and territorial claims. Armenia now faces a tough economic situation and impedes regional development as a whole.

Director of the Center for Strategic Studies under the President of Azerbaijan, Farhad Mammadov, believes the conduct of the next presidential election in Armenia will be undemocratic.

"Due to fear and financial needs, the population will be forced to vote for Sargsyan. Although Sargsyan has resolved the tactical issues to secure a victory in the presidential election, he will face great challenges in the implementation of strategic objectives in the future," Mammadov said.

According to Mammadov, Armenia cannot finally resolve the question of joining the Eurasian Union and the Customs Union.

"At the same time, Armenia is negotiating with the EU on the allocation of a $0.8 -1 billion loan, it is preparing for the summit of sponsors. This amount can only cover the 2012 budget deficit and a few minor projects. Due to the absence of investment projects, the Armenian budget for 2013 has been branded the "budget of struggle for existence," Mammadov noted.

He said that according to official data, in 2011, the poverty rate in Armenia reached 35 percent. According to him, excluding transfers from other countries, the figure covers 53 percent of the population.

"The country's population has completely lost the natural instinct of self-preservation. The choice of the electorate is largely based on two factors -- fear and material interest," Mammadov underlined.

Armenia appears to retain its outpost status in the region. In a message to the Armenian ruling party's convention, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said he was looking forward to an even closer partnership between Russia and Armenia.

Sargsyan asserted that the focus of Armenian foreign policy will be the development of allied partnership with Russia, closer integration with Moscow and the strengthening of the strategic partnership.

Thus, the Armenian government and the governing party remain committed to building ties with all world powers and strengthening Armenia's special partnership with Russia.

The Armenian government will apparently continue to play a servile state's role for Russia in the coming years. Since its independence from the Soviet Union Armenia became a "pawn" of international forces, proudly admitting its role as an outpost in the region.

Ordinary citizens' expectations

With Sargsyan`s coming to power nothing will differ from the previous five years of his presidency, and everything is likely to get even worse.

Armenia is in a desperate situation, the Armenian nation is in need of new leadership that would be able to dramatically change the domestic and foreign policy of the country. Any soundly minded Armenian citizen understands that without peaceful coexistence with neighbors and in the blockade situation with Turkey and Azerbaijan, Armenia will not overcome the predicament to which the Armenian government has driven both itself and the Armenian people.

The role of the opposition in this regard is of considerable significance. Much depends on how the opposition will be able to convince the people to unite around it.

Nevertheless, considering international factors one can suppose that luck will still be on Sargsyan's side. Sargsyan`s officious elimination of his opponents is a good example of this. In spite of his popularity, the candidate from Prosperous Armenia party, Gagik Tsarukyan, suddenly stated that he does not intend to run for president, but the reason of his decision remains unclear.

Armenian political commentators say Tsarukyan's approval rating is 45 per cent.

Earlier, Armenia`s first president Levon Ter-Petrosyan announced he would not stand in the 2013 election. Thus, there will not be any need for electoral fraud, and Sargsyan will probably win the majority of votes.

It is a fact that during the ruling party's meeting Sargsyan did not voice any new ideas or a new approach to the existing problems.

In case of falsification of votes Sargsyan can achieve victory, but the consequences of so-called "fair" elections will be dire.

Besides, not paying attention to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Azerbaijan, which was kindled by Armenia, it was quite clear during the pre-election speech that Sargsyan apparently does not care about the solution of the 20-year-long conflict, which is affecting his country both on regional and international scale.

The Armenian people would like to get rid of the incumbent government, but it is not known yet how this could be done. In any case, with the current government the Armenian nation has no decent future ahead. The only way out for the Armenian people is either to leave the country as their 200,000 fellow citizens living abroad have done or to oust the government.