Azernews.Az

Elnur Enveroglu

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The Armenia-Azerbaijan peace negotiations remain an open and unresolved question, yet beneath the surface, serious new security threats are quietly intensifying. Since early March, the fragile ceasefire has been violated repeatedly — and tellingly, the violations have been recorded unilaterally.

On the Azerbaijani side, official reports confirm that ceasefire breaches have occurred more than three times in the span of a single week. The Armenian Ministry of Defence, however, feigns ignorance, dismissing Azerbaijan’s reports with a studied air of indifference.

But can Armenia truly claim to be unaware of what is happening? If so, why then has it been reinforcing areas close to the conventional, still-delimiting border with artillery emplacements and defensive fortifications?

Since 2023, Armenia has been gripped by a deep and growing paranoia about further territorial losses — a fear that is no longer just societal but institutional. The Pashinyan administration and its political circles, increasingly influenced by lobbying organisations inclined toward provocation, have begun to operate with greater secrecy and caution. Yerevan is well aware that reneging on its peace commitments could have serious consequences. Thus, it seeks to camouflage each new provocation, hoping that plausible deniability will shield it from accountability.

Adding complexity to the situation is the European Union Monitoring Mission currently deployed near the line of contact. In principle, this mission could serve as an impartial witness to events on the ground — if, of course, it chose to act without bias. Unfortunately, from the very first exchange of fire, the mission’s partiality has been difficult to conceal. Though it struggled to directly blame Azerbaijan at first, it nonetheless managed to direct veiled accusations toward Baku, exposing its ambitions to tilt the narrative.

Meanwhile, Yerevan remains silent, playing what might be called the "three monkeys game" — see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil — believing that it can hide the hand that looses the arrow while concealing the bow. But there will come a day when, instead of shadows and whispers, an Armenian soldier will be confronted face-to-face by the consequences of provocations forged by their patrons. And that day will feel less like a political reckoning and more like the encounter with a long-feared nightmare.

This is not rhetoric, nor an exaggeration. Unlike those who recklessly fire shells without cause, Azerbaijan does not waste its words. Our words have always been backed by action. And for those who doubt it, they would be wise to watch — because after the great silence, a storm may well break.