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Akbar Novruz

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The slow but steady dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group appears to be reaching its inevitable conclusion. Once seen as the primary international mechanism for resolving the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, the Group has long lost its relevance — plagued by paralysis, geopolitical biases, and inaction.

Armenia, having once clung to the Minsk Group as a diplomatic shield, is now showing surprising signs of alignment with Azerbaijan’s peace agenda. This shift is perhaps best reflected in recent events, including the visit of OSCE Secretary General Feridun Sinirlioğlu to Yerevan and his meeting with Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan. According to the Armenian Foreign Ministry, the talks addressed both the peace negotiations with Azerbaijan and the normalisation of Armenia-Türkiye relations — a dual-track approach that directly echoes Baku’s regional vision. For your information, it is important to say that, Secretary General is expected to visit Azerbaijan on Friday.

Foreign Minister Mirzoyan’s remarks following the meeting highlighted that finalising the peace agreement with Azerbaijan is now considered a priority for Yerevan — a message that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago.

However, contradictions remain at the heart of the Armenian leadership’s messaging. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in a recent address to parliament, oscillated between reassurance and alarmism. While stating that Armenia and Azerbaijan have recognised each other’s territorial integrity and that “there will be peace, not war,” he also warned of groups inside and outside Armenia allegedly preparing for renewed conflict. This duality points to the ongoing internal fragmentation within Armenia’s political establishment.

It raises a critical question: Is Yerevan still trying to delay the dismantling of the OSCE Minsk Group, fearing the final loss of a diplomatic crutch? Or is it simply struggling to balance conflicting pressures from its domestic opposition, diaspora, and foreign sponsors?

In an effort to assess the true direction of the peace process, Azernews spoke to two renowned experts.

British expert Neil Watson called the Minsk Group a “non-entity,” stressing that it failed for nearly three decades and that its co-chairs — Russia, France, and the U.S. — no longer hold any moral authority to mediate. He suggested that Armenia is starting to realize that true sovereignty cannot be achieved through dependency on third parties, especially those driven by their own geopolitical agendas.

Watson also noted that Pashinyan’s inconsistency stems not from a lack of intent, but from his politically impossible position — caught between peace-seeking civilians and war-weary elites. Nevertheless, Watson expressed optimism, emphasizing that a bilateral peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with Türkiye’s strategic backing, is closer than ever.

Former U.S. Ambassador Matthew Bryza offered a more structural view, pointing out that Pashinyan’s remarks were likely directed inward — a warning to domestic actors within Armenia’s political system who profit from continued hostilities. He stressed that both leaders — Pashinyan and Aliyev — want peace, but internal spoilers must be overcome for it to materialize.

In the end, the future of peace in the South Caucasus depends less on international organizations and more on the political maturity of its regional actors. The OSCE Minsk Group’s expiration is not a loss — it is a long-overdue correction. And if Armenia truly commits to bilateral negotiations, a historic opportunity for lasting peace may finally be within reach.