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By Farman Aydin | AzerNEWS

The wise do not use great words in vain, nor do those words turn into aphorisms in our language for no reason. There is meaning behind every word, and characters that reflect that meaning. For example, there is a saying, "empty vessels make the most noise", referring to those who appear to be ambitious in carrying a burden they cannot truly bear — but in practice, not in words...

France has recently tried to play an active role in international policy, which raises questions about its potential and capacity. Given the history of the world since the collapse of the Iron Curtain, one could suggest that it was Nicolas Sarkozy who let the genie out of the bottle by meddling in the turmoil in Libya in 2011, which paved the way for the toppling and killing of Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi. As is known, an international coalition had formed against Gaddafi at that time, and France was at the forefront of this coalition. France was the first country to recognize the Libyan opposition (the National Transitional Council) as the legitimate government. On March 19, 2011, French fighter jets were the first to strike Gaddafi's forces, even before the full coalition launched broader airstrikes. President Nicolas Sarkozy was one of the most vocal proponents of military intervention on humanitarian grounds. This was considered a first for that period, as such operations were usually initiated by the United States, with other NATO or Western countries participating.

However, during Macron's presidency, France’s hardline international policy gained further momentum. The first years of Macron's presidency are remembered for bombing Syria in 2018 alongside the US and Britain, intervening in the Libyan civil war, and arming Armenia. With Trump ascending to power for a second term, Paris intensified its hardline foreign policy to such an extent that it began to challenge Washington.

Thus, at first, France demonstrated its readiness to fill the gap left by the United States in the Russia-Ukraine war. Considering Russia's assets in European banks, France’s stronger economy and industry compared to Russia, and the overall potential of the European Union, France's move can be understood to some extent. More precisely, Paris can prolong the Russia-Ukraine war to wear out Moscow by using Russian assets in European banks and the potential of the EU.

However, Macron’s recent visit to Egypt and the statements made about it have left many scratching their heads in confusion. The visit can be interpreted as anti-American and anti-Israeli. This raises the question: 'Can France confront both Russia and the US simultaneously?' The answer is likely no. France can hardly cope with Russia, let alone the US, which is several times larger in terms of economy and military power. Moreover, one point should not be overlooked – during Macron’s presidency, France endured several debacles in Africa. In addition, domestic unrest has escalated.

Honestly, one would wish that a third force would emerge to challenge the bipolar world order that arose after World War II. It doesn’t matter which country that third power would be. The reality is that a multipolar world would foster stronger competition, from which everyone could benefit. However, with France’s ever-declining human potential and economic power, such a claim can only be seen as adventurism, and the one that would suffer most from this would be France itself. For instance, in 1990, France was the fourth-largest economy in the world, but today, it ranks seventh. Many technologies, once monopolized by the West (such as long-range missile production, aircraft manufacturing, etc.), have now moved beyond the monopoly of these countries.

Political turmoil inside France and anti-Macron sentiment

Although France tries to present itself on a global scale in world politics, protests against Macron's system of governance within the country have been steadily increasing. The day before yesterday, while Emmanuel Macron was on a visit to Egypt, a support rally for Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally Party and a radical right-wing politician, was taking place in Paris. In the rally, party representatives who criticized Macron's policies accused him of pressuring political parties. It was noted that, prior to this, the leader of the National Rally Party’s parliamentary faction had been banned by the court from running for government. The protest was in response to the court's decision, which was regarded as a violation of democratic rights, and Le Pen’s supporters believe that this decision was intended to weaken her political position.

Additionally, due to France losing influence in African and colonial states, as well as in island nations, the French leadership, which has a harsh stance toward criticisms of the government, has increased its pressure on freedom of speech.

Despite the tense situation inside the country, France has attempted to assert itself as a key player in global politics, but its ability to challenge the established powers, particularly the United States and Russia, remains questionable. Its actions in Libya, Syria, and the Ukraine crisis demonstrate an ambition to fill leadership roles in global conflicts. However, France’s diminishing economic and military strength, coupled with increasing domestic unrest, suggests that its capacity to maintain such a position is limited. The shifting balance of power and emerging multipolar world further complicate France's aspirations, making its future influence uncertain. Ultimately, France’s pursuit of an active foreign policy could face significant challenges in the years to come.

Photo credit: Reuters