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Akbar Novruz

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The 11th Ministerial Meeting of the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC) Advisory Council and the 3rd Green Energy Advisory Council convened in Baku on April 4, bringing together key stakeholders to evaluate progress and challenges in the region’s energy cooperation with Europe.

President Ilham Aliyev reaffirmed Azerbaijan’s position as a vital energy supplier, noting that the country currently exports natural gas to 12 countries—10 of which are European, including 8 EU member states.

“The geography of our gas supply in Europe will definitely grow, because today we are already involved in the creation of gas distribution networks in some European countries. Some of them do not have one, some of them need to expand it, and Azerbaijan, as an investor, is planning to do that. So, the geography of our gas supplies will definitely grow through different ways, including inter-connectors.”

This concern about long-term commitments echoed throughout the meeting. Energy Minister Parviz Shahbazov reflected on the initial optimism following the 2022 energy cooperation agreement with the EU, when the development of the SGC’s second phase seemed imminent. The first phase had received strong financial backing and long-term guarantees from European partners. However, the situation has since shifted.

“The EU’s policy has changed,” Shahbazov explained. “We could not even obtain the status of a project of mutual interest. European financial institutions declined to finance the next phase.” Without secure contracts and financial assurances, the momentum toward expansion risks stalling.

European Commission representative Cristina Lobillo expressed hope for a continued stable supply from Azerbaijan, acknowledging the importance of its role in the region’s energy security. Yet behind the rhetoric lies a more complex reality.

Azerbaijan’s energy strategy is not a recent phenomenon. More than three decades ago, Baku laid the groundwork for its oil diplomacy. The SGC, launched despite external political pressure and suggestions from some EU actors to reroute the corridor through Armenia, ultimately succeeded thanks to Azerbaijan’s firm stance and long-term vision. The $40 billion infrastructure now serves as a backbone of Europe’s diversification efforts.

That was only the second phase of Azerbaijan’s energy journey. The third—its push into renewable energy—has taken shape through the Caspian-Black Sea-Europe Green Energy Corridor with Georgia, Romania, and Hungary. The participation of these EU member states signals that Europe sees Azerbaijan not only as a traditional gas supplier but also as a partner in the green transition.

Europe’s selective urgency

Despite its consistent reliability, Azerbaijan has at times faced shifting attitudes from the EU. Baku views Brussels’ commitment as transactional—warm during crises, distant when pressure subsides. President Aliyev has stressed that reliability must be mutual: while Europe relies on Azerbaijani gas to meet demand, Baku expects serious political and financial backing in return.

By 2027, Azerbaijan plans to raise gas exports to Europe to 20 bcm. Though this represents just 4% of the EU’s overall need—estimated at 500 bcm—it holds disproportionate strategic value for certain regions with limited alternatives.

As the Southern Gas Corridor moves into its next phase, a clear message emerged from Baku: energy security cannot be built on vague assurances. Europe must decide whether it sees Azerbaijan as a long-term partner or a stopgap solution.