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Akbar Novruz

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Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian is set to make his first official visit to Azerbaijan this month, following an agreement reached during a phone conversation with President Ilham Aliyev on March 31. The statement from both sides highlighted a mutual interest in fostering "friendship and brotherhood," but does this visit signal a true shift in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations? Or will it simply be a diplomatic formality without significant breakthroughs?

Political expert Asif Narimanli shared his insights with Azernews, emphasizing that the visit should not be seen as the start of a new chapter just yet:

"Actually, I think Pezeshkian's visit cannot be called the beginning of a new stage in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations. Perhaps, official Baku will try to learn the position and political line of the new Iranian President with this meeting. President Ilham Aliyev also stated this in an interview with local TV channels at the beginning of the year, saying that official Baku is very interested in the normalization process between the two countries. Even for this purpose, the Azerbaijani embassy in Iran was restored. However, currently, Masoud Pezeshkian's new position is not yet clear. In order for this to be clear, a meeting between officials of the two countries was necessary. This is also Baku's expectation, and it seems that Tehran is also interested in this.

Undoubtedly, the normalization process between the two countries also coincided with the last periods of the rule and life of the late President Ibrahim Raisi. Although after his death, a number of points arose regarding whether the normalization process between the countries would continue or not. Because it is clear that there are a number of forces in Iran that are against Azerbaijan and these forces are interested in straining relations with Azerbaijan. For example, the IRGC wing supports a political line based on pressure on official Baku and has not hesitated to state this repeatedly on social networks. In this regard, they have taken provocative steps from time to time. Today, Pezeshkian's visit means that they are interested in continuing the normalization line. Although it is not excluded that provocative steps have been taken within Iran with the relaunch of this diplomatic line. These should also be taken into account."

The visit comes at a crucial moment for Iran, as Narimanli points out, particularly given the changing geopolitical landscape with Donald Trump’s return to the White House and increasing pressure on Tehran:

"Of course, there are also a number of interesting points here. With the election of Donald Trump as US President for a second term, there are facts such as increased pressure on Iran, claims that there will be military intervention and increased sanctions, which caused a major crisis in the Pezeshkian administration, which led to the resignation of many high-ranking officials in recent weeks. In this context, it is important for Iran to normalize relations with Azerbaijan, the leading country in the South Caucasus. We know that in Iran the main political will comes from the religious leader, and this visit of Pezeshkian shows that this visit should be considered in a concrete way as a decision made by the Iranian state as a whole."

Ultimately, Pezeshkian’s visit will serve as an important litmus test for Azerbaijan-Iran relations. Whether it leads to substantive progress or remains a diplomatic courtesy will depend on both sides’ willingness to address long-standing issues and overcome internal pressures.