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Akbar Novruz

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Armenia’s foreign policy might be at a breaking point. Once convinced that the West would shield it from regional threats, Yerevan is now coming to terms with a stark reality: the United States, the European Union, and France have their own pressing concerns, leaving Armenia increasingly exposed. Meanwhile, Russia, once its primary protector, sees Yerevan’s Western pivot as a betrayal—one that may not go unpunished.

Perhaps this strategy has been like this for over 3 or 4 years. Yet, it would be pretty ideal to say this emerged almost as foreign policy 'play' of Yerevan amidst the Ukrainian war, an attempt to reduce or diminish Russian dependency. Struggling to find a way out, Armenia is now attempting a precarious balancing act. It is tentatively moving toward a peace agreement with Azerbaijan in hopes of normalizing ties with Türkiye and breaking free from regional isolation. Which is applaudable, but still unconvincing considering how things are going at the border between her and Azerbaijan's border - breaking the ceasefire almost every day over since the peace agreement came to its finalisation period. At the same time, it is making overtures to Moscow, fearing that if it burns its last bridges with Russia, the consequences could be devastating. But in trying to play both sides, is Yerevan digging itself deeper into a geopolitical trap?

Abandoned by the West, cornered by Moscow

Armenia’s strategy of banking on unwavering Western support is unraveling. The once-cohesive backing from the US, EU, and France has fractured amid rising global tensions. The US and EU are increasingly at odds over strategic priorities, while France’s ambitions clash even within Europe. With no unified Western policy on Armenia, Yerevan is struggling to secure the security guarantees it once expected.

This growing uncertainty has forced the Pashinyan government to reconsider its options. With Azerbaijan gaining the upper hand diplomatically and militarily, prolonging the peace process no longer benefits Armenia. Signing an agreement with Baku could provide a diplomatic lifeline—potentially unlocking Türkiye’s support and reducing the risk of conflict. But in doing so, Yerevan risks angering Moscow, which has long used the unresolved Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict as leverage to maintain control over the region.

A desperate pivot back to Russia?

Faced with the prospect of complete abandonment, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is subtly reaching out to Moscow again. His recent phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin—right after Yerevan signaled readiness to finalize the peace deal with Baku—suggests an effort to reassure the Kremlin that Armenia is not straying too far. His acceptance of an invitation to Moscow’s May 9 Victory Parade, after previously avoiding Russian engagements, is another clear signal that Yerevan is hedging its bets.

However, this may not be enough to erase Moscow’s resentment. Russia has already demonstrated its ability to punish former allies who seek to escape its sphere of influence.

Despite rekindling ties with Russia, Armenia is also keeping its Western channels open. Just as Pashinyan updated Putin on the peace process, he did the same with Western leaders, including France. This suggests that Yerevan has not yet fully abandoned its Western ambitions. But by trying to please both sides, Armenia risks alienating everyone—appearing unreliable to Moscow while remaining a low priority for the West.

Armenia’s attempt at parallel diplomacy may seem like a survival strategy, but in reality, it exposes its deep vulnerability. Without a clear geopolitical anchor, Yerevan is trapped in a cycle of desperate maneuvering—where every move to escape its predicament only tightens the noose. The crux of Armenia’s dilemma lies in its inability to pursue an independent foreign policy. For decades, Yerevan has relied on external backers—whether Russia, France, or the US—to shape its security and diplomatic posture. Now, as global power dynamics shift, Armenia finds itself without a clear patron. If the West continues to deprioritize Yerevan, and if Moscow remains unforgiving, Armenia could face its most precarious geopolitical crisis yet.

Ultimately, Armenia’s survival hinges on its ability to navigate these shifting alliances without provoking a harsh response from either camp. But with limited leverage and growing external pressures, the Pashinyan government may soon find itself out of viable options.