Azernews.Az

Elnur Enveroglu

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Large-scale provocations are often subtle in their initial stages, designed to cause significant damage over time. While their preparation may escape widespread notice, when the moment arrives, they can lead to severe confrontations that are difficult to avert.

For over two years, the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMA) has been monitoring the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, occasionally using binoculars to observe Azerbaijan's positions. Officially, the mission claims to secure Armenia's safety, but in reality, under the guise of its self-proclaimed status, it hinders the security of Azerbaijan with its binocular drama. The EUMA arrived in Armenia without Azerbaijan’s consent, and crucially, the details of its personnel were not disclosed to Azerbaijan, with only the fact that the group was unarmed being shared. Operating very close to Azerbaijan's borders, the mission exploits even minor pretexts to justify its actions and, when necessary, uses them to its advantage.

The EUMA’s role on the ground serves two main purposes: First, to create artificial tension in the region through Armenia, extending its stay in the area, and second, to broaden the European mission’s influence in the South Caucasus. These efforts are driven by a broader ambition to shape the future of the region through Armenian involvement.

But what kind of future are they shaping?

Armenia, which has been issuing baseless and hypothetical predictions of an "impending attack" by Azerbaijan, claims to be concerned about the security of its territories. Using this purported concern, it seeks European backing, yet this approach risks destabilizing the South Caucasus rather than improving its security.

It is no secret that the South Caucasus has long been of interest to European powers. However, their access to the region has not been straightforward — until now, when Armenia has conveniently facilitated that entry. While the initial impression might be that the mission serves Armenia’s interests, there are other objectives at play, as is becoming increasingly evident.

For instance, just recently, the mission was unaware when Armenian forces launched attacks on Azerbaijani positions during the evening hours. The EUMA, reporting that the situation was stable and secure, claimed no incidents had occurred. To make matters worse, the mission went further to accuse Azerbaijan of spreading false information about ceasefire violations. A curious question arises: what if Azerbaijan had responded with return fire?

There is little doubt that the mission’s daily surveillance of Azerbaijani positions is part of a deliberate strategy to provoke and escalate tensions, aiming to maintain the mission’s status quo while positioning Azerbaijan as the aggressor. This tactic has sometimes yielded results, but so far, it has not succeeded in pushing Azerbaijan into a conflict.

Furthermore, with Armenia's increasing militarization, the EUMA seems intent on drawing Azerbaijan into a provocation, hoping to rekindle hostilities. For the European mission, the onset of war could provide the green light to entrench itself fully in the South Caucasus. The critical factor, however, is Azerbaijan’s response, which will determine whether this escalation occurs.

Azerbaijan is well aware of these dynamics and, for the sake of regional security, has refrained from reacting to Armenia’s provocations. However, there remains a critical issue: how long can Armenia continue its provocations without facing consequences?

Recent reports suggested that Armenia is preparing for war in April, fueled by its recent agreements with India for arms purchases. While war may not come to pass, this could serve as a signal of the growing threat from Armenia. Given Armenia’s history of occupying its neighbour’s territories for three decades, it is clear that its desire to re-arm is not born of peaceful intentions. Despite repeated warnings from Azerbaijan to the countries supplying arms to Armenia, no significant action has been taken. It appears that it is not Armenia alone, but the nations supplying it with weapons, that are preparing the ground for future conflict.