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Akbar Novruz

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Armenia appears to believe that a peace treaty can be signed without first fulfilling Azerbaijan’s key demands. This assumption stems from reports suggesting that negotiations on the text of the agreement between Baku and Yerevan are nearing completion. However, Azerbaijan does not seek merely a symbolic document—it demands real guarantees for lasting peace.

One of the most crucial conditions remains Armenia’s constitutional amendments, specifically the removal of territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Without this, any peace agreement will be fragile at best. If Armenia retains its territorial ambitions within its legal framework, the risk of renewed hostilities in the coming years remains high. Baku is working to prevent such a scenario from materializing.

Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan recently stated that once the peace treaty is signed, "it will be possible to consider, at an institutional level, that the conflict has come to an end" and there would be no further need for a mediation format like the OSCE Minsk Group. However, his remarks suggest that Yerevan has no intention of discussing the dissolution of the group prior to signing the treaty, once again stalling and diverting the conversation. This approach aligns with the broader pattern of political populism coming from Armenian leaders, as demonstrated by Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s recent statements.

This development should be viewed positively at this stage, as it represents a significant achievement. Almost every significant power have commended this occasion, and applauded as a new hope for the region after more than three decades. However, reaching a final peace agreement may take some time, especially since it will require amending the claims in the Armenian constitution.

While Pashinyan insists that Armenia's new constitution is not being drafted in response to Azerbaijan’s demands, he has provided no clarity on its implications. His vague rhetoric suggests preparations for a national referendum, followed by constitutional reforms that could potentially exclude territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Since early 2024, he has been actively promoting the so-called "real Armenia" ideology, slowly conditioning Armenian society for this shift.

Yet, despite Pashinyan’s control over the government, his support in Armenian society remains limited when it comes to fundamental political decisions. The peace process has faced significant resistance from opposition groups, the church, and foreign-backed lobbies. Pro-Russian and pro-Iranian forces in Armenia are expected to intensify their efforts to derail peace negotiations, using public protests and political pressure.

The urgency of addressing these unresolved issues was underscored once again when Armenia’s military provoked yet another border incident. On March 16, at approximately 09:45, Armenian forces stationed near the Digh settlement in the Gorus region opened fire on Azerbaijani positions, according to Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense. And that's not all. At approximately 18:35, units of the Armenian armed forces opened fire on the positions of the Azerbaijani Army from positions located in the direction of the Khazinavar settlement of the Gorus district yet again. Interesting enough, that this happens right after the Armenian Defense Ministry said on Sunday that Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry claims that Armenian troops shot at its positions on the border do not "correspond to reality," when the first incident happened at the border. One may wonder if this does not correspond to reality?

Pashinyan’s government has justified the militarization as necessary for national security, but in reality, it fuels revanchist sentiments and undermines trust in the peace process. Who knows, perhaps the Armenian government has not yet managed to establish order and discipline within the army, a problem that has persisted for years. This division between the government and the military is evident in these incidents.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made this clear at the 12th Global Baku Forum, stating that Baku demands concrete actions—not just words—from Armenia.

“The level of trust in Armenia is close to zero. So, we do not trust any of their words. Because they are not the people who we can trust, including today’s government. Again, all that they say, for us, has zero meaning. We need documents; we need papers. We need their constitution to be free of territorial claims against Azerbaijan. It still contains territorial claims against Azerbaijan. We need the OSCE Minsk Group to be dissolved. We convey this message to Armenia, saying that there is no logic in keeping the Minsk Group. It was created to address the issue of Garabagh . Now Garabgh is done. Armenia recognizes Garabagh as part of Azerbaijan. Why don’t you join us in a joint application to the OSCE to dissolve it? They don’t want. So, they want to keep ‘a part of their feet’ on the ground, on our territory, now virtually, of course. Their military build-up - what does it demonstrate? It demonstrates that they are preparing for a new war,” said President Aliyev.

Pashinyan's balancing act is also influenced by Armenia’s upcoming elections. The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for the summer of 2026, while a referendum on constitutional changes may take place in December of the same year. However, given the political turbulence in Armenia, both timelines could shift. Pashinyan may even opt for early elections if his position weakens further.

Ultimately, the fate of the peace treaty hinges on Armenia’s willingness to take genuine steps toward reconciliation. If Yerevan fails to amend its constitution and renounce territorial claims against Azerbaijan, the risk of renewed instability will remain high. While Pashinyan might be able to maneuver politically in the short term, sustainable peace can only be achieved through real commitments, not empty declarations.