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Elnur Enveroglu

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In a dramatic twist that has captivated global headlines, US President Donald Trump’s latest letter to Iran has raised concerns about the future of international relations and the possibility of war. The letter, which sharply demands that Iran halt its nuclear program, presents Tehran with an ultimatum: "negotiation or war." This declaration has refocused the world’s attention on the fraught and increasingly volatile US-Iran relationship.

The question now is simple: what will America’s next move be? Will Trump lead the charge into a new military conflict, or will diplomatic efforts provide a way forward? These questions echo the longstanding tension between the two nations, which has simmered for decades like a dormant volcano waiting to erupt. However, this is not a sudden shift; rather, it marks a continuation of a crisis that has been developing ever since Trump assumed office.

While the US president has not publicly articulated his stance on Iran prior to or during his first term, he has made it clear that he sees the Iranian issue as one of the most pressing challenges of his presidency. His rhetoric has grown bolder, and his diplomatic overtures to Moscow may offer clues to the broader strategy he is pursuing.

US-Russia connection: An unlikely alliance?

One of the most striking features of Trump’s foreign policy has been his concessional behaviour towards Russia. His administration's lenient stance toward Moscow has raised eyebrows and sparked speculation: is Trump perhaps under Russian influence? This question gained particular traction following the prolonged and devastating war in Ukraine. The conflict, now in its third year, has appeared to Trump as a costly, intractable quagmire. With Ukraine besieged by Russian forces, it is clear that the American president sees this as a major financial and strategic drain.

Despite this, it seems that Trump’s focus on Moscow remains unwavering. The US has been seen as attempting to undermine Ukraine while also rebuilding its relationship with Russia, a move that many observers see as an attempt to balance geopolitical power. In this context, the ongoing US-Iran dispute has taken on an even more critical dimension. America, in the midst of this tug-of-war with Russia, appears to seek Iran’s cooperation in completing its unfinished business. The US needs Moscow's support to ensure that its agenda in the Middle East is achieved — an alliance that is especially crucial as the Russia-Iran partnership grows stronger.

The current impasse with Iran is not new. Tensions between the US and Iran have simmered for decades, reaching new heights under Trump. One of the most significant moments came when the US killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in early 2020. This move, while striking, also sent a loud and clear message to Iran: America is willing to act decisively to protect its interests.

However, the issues between the two countries extend beyond personal conflicts. The United States has long been troubled by Iran's activities in the Persian Gulf, particularly its attacks on oil tankers in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s animosity toward the US has also manifested in its meddling in regional conflicts. From supporting Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to backing the Houthi rebels in Yemen, Iran has proven to be a thorn in the side of American interests in the Middle East. Additionally, Tehran’s role in fueling tensions between Israel and Hamas has made Iran a central player in the region’s instability.

Perhaps most concerning for Washington is Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Although Iran is significantly weaker than the US militarily and economically, it views its nuclear program as its only viable deterrent against external threats. This reality creates a stark dilemma for the US: either Iran must comply with American demands to halt its nuclear development, or the world faces the very real possibility of catastrophic war.

Now, as President Trump presents Iran with an ultimatum — either negotiations or war — the stakes could not be higher. The US is trying to navigate a perilous geopolitical landscape, but the outcome of this standoff will have implications far beyond just Iran or America. The future of the Middle East, global security, and the stability of the international order hang in the balance.

As much as Trump may desire a diplomatic solution, he knows that military force may be the only remaining option if Tehran refuses to bend to his will. And if war does come, it would not only be catastrophic for Iran and the US, but it could also lead to wider regional destabilization, drawing in allies and adversaries alike.

Does US leave Ukraine crisis in limbo

Donald Trump’s tactical yet somewhat hurried geostrategy has raised questions about what the United States truly thinks about Ukraine. In a recent sharp critique, Trump told Ukraine’s president, "You don't have the cards," in the Oval Office, leading to the lingering question: Has Trump abandoned Ukraine to fend for itself, or will he ultimately save it from Russia’s grip? The situation is moving so dynamically and quickly that it has become difficult to deeply analyse what the US truly intends and what might unfold next. With time running short, Trump seems to be pursuing a multivector policy — on the one hand, maintaining a parallel strategy with Moscow while keeping Ukraine under control, and on the other, attempting to coax Russia into supporting US efforts to pressure Iran.

However, executing both of these actions simultaneously does not seem entirely plausible given the constraints of US power. Trump is aware of this and, while urging Ukraine to avoid a full-scale war, he seems more intent on redirecting his focus toward Iran — a country that, while militarily and economically weaker, is determined and resilient. By targeting Iran, the US is also making a move against the broader Islamic community in the Middle East. Crushing Iran could significantly increase the resolve of other Muslim countries, potentially leading to the formation of a united front against the US.

The White House has likely calculated these risks beforehand, but the real challenge lies in executing this plan over the next four years. Whether the US can carry out its ambitions and manage these complex relationships remains shrouded in uncertainty.

As Trump presses Iran to make a choice, the world watches, wondering whether this will be the moment when one of the most intractable conflicts in modern history reaches its violent conclusion — or whether diplomacy can still prevail in preventing an all-out war. In the end, the question remains: will the United States, with the help of Russia, manage to broker peace, or will this nuclear standoff ignite a firestorm that devastates the Middle East and beyond?