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Elnur Enveroglu

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As the Russia-Ukraine war approaches its third anniversary, the recent phone conversations between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin have created an unexpected moment of calm amidst the ongoing conflict. This initiative by Trump, who previously asserted he could "stop the war in just 24 hours" during his presidential campaign, has garnered significant attention. Now, the spotlight is shifting from Putin to Trump. The crucial question remains: what promises will the US leader offer to persuade the obstinate Kremlin? What does Trump's "concrete plan" exactly stand for?

Experts assert that alleviating the tension between Ukraine and Russia hinges on one critical condition—Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Kursk region and its unconditional agreement to cede the 20% of territory it has lost. Aware that Russia will not retreat from the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Donbas regions, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has called on European allies for intensified assistance against Moscow's relentless assaults. With the understanding that Trump’s administration may differ significantly from Biden’s, Zelensky has displayed greater resolve in recent attacks.

However, the war's devastation raises significant concerns not just for Ukraine and Russia, but also for the future of Europe. In addition to the catastrophic toll of the relentless conflict, the economic blow has emerged as a pressing issue for the United States. Fearing the painful repercussions for Europe, America is working to negotiate terms that might bring Moscow to the table. The strategy to undermine the Russian economy is, in reality, a blow to Europe’s profit margins. Trump's perspective on the economic implications of the war allows for a clearer understanding of the scale and fate of the damages both sides will endure. He recognizes the necessity of softening the dialogue with Putin, suggesting that smaller concessions may need to be made for the sake of a larger agreement.

Although Trump has not disclosed detailed information about the phone discussions, he prefers to keep this conversation mostly under wraps. This approach echoes the secret negotiations that took place between former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan concerning submarines. Questions abound: what exactly did the US promise Russia, and how might Putin respond to Trump’s requests?

Ultimately, can we reasonably assess that the Russia-Ukraine tension might ease by the year 2025? While this initial communication may serve as a starting point, the anticipated future meetings could lead to more significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape. The world's eyes remain fixed on how these dialogues will unfold and whether they can construct a path toward lasting peace in a region marred by conflict and hardship for nearly three years.

Ukraine's scepticism amid Trump's brokering peace deal

Europe's intention to fully mobilize against Russia if Trump is thinking about making peace with Putin creates a bit of a contrast between the US and the EU states. The geopolitical reasons for this are clear, as Europe shares direct borders with Russia and is the first to suffer in the economic turmoil.

But the decisions of the US, which brokers the peace talks, still remain a key factor in achieving the final result.

Nevertheless, the fact that the US and Europe agree on peace talks is an idea that even Ukraine supports. A few days ago, Volodymyr Zelensky, who made a statement to the Associated Press, gave the reason for the US and Europe to sit down at the negotiating table together. He even said that the talks would be impossible without Ukraine's participation.

"They may have their own relations, but talking about Ukraine without us — it is dangerous for everyone," Zelensky said, referring to Trump's earlier remarks.

Zelensky's statements actually showed a kind of scepticism towards Trump's involvement in the talks. He does not want the European side to be left out of the table, knowing that Europe is determined against Russia and that the United States wants to stop the war at all costs. However, knowing that Europe will eventually settle accounts with the United States, the Ukrainian leader does not welcome negotiations without Ukraine. Even without fully knowing what the outcome would be with Ukraine's participation...