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Elnur Enveroglu

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The growing criticism of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan by former opposition groups within the country against the backdrop of Armenia's rapid integration into the West indicates the strengthening of Russophile and paradoxical political positions in the country. Besides, the deepening rifts between Russia and Armenia over the past two months have also increased uncertainty about the country's future.

A few weeks ago, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan's visit to Moscow and his pleasant-on-the-face, but suggestive-behind-the-scenes talks with his counterpart Sergei Lavrov raised deep questions. Yerevan thought it was a simple matter of playing a double game between the Kremlin and the West, but the tough demands from Moscow forced it to think deeper.

Armenia's appearance as an active player on the Western front, in addition to being a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO, was not welcomed by Russia unequivocally. Lavrov explained this political game of Pashinyan, which seemed to be a threat to Russia, by building it on the wrong parameters. He believes that Pashinyan is wearing two hats, both calling Russia's enemies friends and continuing to work in organizations under Russian leadership. The Russian Foreign Ministry does not rule out that the partnership charter signed by Yerevan with the United States will one day be used as a weapon against Moscow. Lavrov believes that although Armenia says that it stands with both sides, it may one day inevitably oppose the Kremlin under the influence of the West, to which it is closest.

Pashinyan poses an obstacle for Russia

Pashinyan's pro-Western government, which Russia has long sought to overthrow, poses serious problems for both the former opposition forces and the Kremlin. For this, a number of politicians from the Armenian opposition popped up on the scene and voiced criticism against Pashinyan.

Former Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan's sharp criticism of Pashinyan is more likely to express what Russia wants to say but cannot say directly. Oskanyan accuses Pashinyan of betraying Russia. He claims that Nikol Pashinyan has stabbed Moscow in the back. His dream of leading the country towards the West portends serious disasters. However, the former minister previously supported Armenia's integration with the West and considered it important for the country's development. So how is it that Oskanyan now considers the country's proximity to the West a threat?

Vardan Oskanyan also said that Pashinyan is indifferent to the fate of a group of war criminals imprisoned in Baku. Currently, a number of pro-Russian opposition forces, like Oskanyan, are exaggerating this issue and using it as a tool against Pashinyan.

It is no secret that the appearance of Ruben Vardanyan, known as a Russian oligarch after 2020, in Azerbaijan’s Garabagh was associated with Moscow. The plan to parachute him into Garabagh as a minister of the so-called Republic and then drive him as a wedge against the Yerevan administration did not escape the attention of Prime Minister Pashinyan. Pashinyan knew that Russia was trying to overthrow him by some means and portray him as a traitor in the eyes of the opposition in connection with the processes in Garabagh.

Trust in the opposition and the restoration of Russian influence

Although Nikol Pashinyan remains trapped between the West and Russia, trust in neither the opposition nor Russia in his country is at the same level today. This can provide some confidence in the future of Pashinyan's government. Moreover, the continuation of the Russia-Ukraine war and the weakening of external influence still gives him a wider opportunity to bring Western forces to his country as close as possible. Nikol Pashinyan's broad perspective on the activities of the European Mission in his country also aims to protect it from Moscow's influence. He has created both a Russian and an "Azerbaijani threat" phenomenon against his country in the South Caucasus, entrusting control of his country's borders to well-trained Western military personnel in civilian clothes.

But Armenia's economic dependence on Russia, as well as its commitments based on agreements with Azerbaijan, distance it from a somewhat radical Western position. Pashinyan also knows that the country's two and a half million people do not trust the opposition, and even hoping for something from Russia is like looking for the sun in the rain.