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Akbar Novruz

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The appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State under President Trump has sparked discussions on the future direction of U.S. foreign policy, particularly in relation to the South Caucasus region. Rubio, known for his hawkish stance and internationalist views, will play a significant role in shaping the administration's approach to global affairs. His comments on Iran, AUKUS, and other key issues suggest that the U.S. may adopt a more assertive foreign policy, though uncertainties remain regarding how these changes will manifest in the South Caucasus.

Rubio’s approach to foreign policy, which prioritizes American strength on the global stage, contrasts with the isolationist tendencies of former President Trump. However, Rubio's expertise, honed through years of work on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Intelligence Committee, positions him as a potential leader in shaping U.S. foreign relations. Despite his background and experience, Rubio will face challenges, particularly given his previous conflicts with President Trump and the unpredictability of the administration.

How about the possible implications for the South Caucasus region? The future of the South Caucasus in the context of Rubio’s role and the broader Trump administration remains uncertain, at least for now...

Policy Shifts Toward Iran: Rubio’s tough stance on Iran, especially his commitment to preventing its nuclear capabilities, could significantly affect the South Caucasus. Azerbaijan, wary of Iran, may gain strategic importance as U.S. pressure on Tehran escalates. However, a more aggressive approach could also heighten regional tensions and destabilize neighbouring areas.

U.S. Relations with Georgia: Georgia’s alignment with the U.S. is vital for regional stability and will be closely scrutinized under the new administration. Rubio’s policy decisions could influence Tbilisi’s future, particularly in terms of closer U.S. ties or opposition to the current government.

Russia’s Role: The region’s reliance on Russia for security may increase amidst an unpredictable U.S. foreign policy. The South Caucasus remains a strategic area of competition, and changes in U.S. policy could either strengthen or weaken Russia's influence, potentially forcing regional states to choose sides.

Azerbaijan, which has long prioritized strengthening ties with the United States, finds itself at a crossroads as it moves into a new era of diplomacy with Rubio at the helm. Throughout its history of statehood, Azerbaijan has made concerted efforts to establish solid political and economic relations with the U.S. Yet, during the Biden administration, relations faced challenges, particularly due to a perceived bias toward Armenia, fueled by the influence of the Armenian lobby. In Azerbaijan, Biden will be remembered as a president who, according to many, allowed the Armenian narrative to dominate American foreign policy toward the region. His decision to pardon his son and Antony Blinken's tenure, marred by dishonesty, further eroded trust in the administration.

With Rubio now in power, Azerbaijan may have a more balanced diplomatic partner. Rubio’s foreign policy stance, rooted in strength and security, aligns closely with Azerbaijan’s national interests. However, Rubio’s appointment also comes at a time when U.S. policy toward the South Caucasus is still unclear. Initial indications reportedly suggest that there are pro-Armenian voices within the new administration. For example, Marco Rubio himself, and Tulsi Gabbard, nominated for the position of Director of National Intelligence, have expressed pro-Armenian positions. Their views will likely influence the White House's policy, however, these figures could wield considerable influence in shaping U.S. policy toward Armenia and Azerbaijan, potentially complicating the dynamics of the U.S.-Azerbaijan relationship.

We should of course note that, the Armenian National Committee of America (ANCA) continues to work relentlessly to undermine relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The ANCA, despite the potential consequences, has long tried to sow discord in U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. Which has been noticeable during the Biden administration. Their (ANCA) actions, including submitting testimony in support of Rubio’s confirmation as Secretary of State, are part of a broader strategy to keep the U.S. aligned with Armenian interests, regardless of the geopolitical realities at play. It's unfortunate to observe how one lobby's policies diverge from those of the country it represents, often enjoying greater representation than the country itself. Despite the Armenian authorities' evolving and hopeful approach to relations with Azerbaijan, the lobby continues to adopt a provocative stance. This ongoing influence from Armenian lobby groups highlights the challenges the U.S. government faces as it seeks to balance competing interests in the region.

On the other hand, Rubio’s hawkish policies may also be met with resistance from those in the U.S. who view a more isolationist stance as preferable. President Trump’s unpredictable approach to foreign relations, which included clashes with NATO allies and a strained relationship with his own Cabinet members, left a legacy of instability in U.S. foreign policy. Rubio’s ability to lead will depend on his ability to navigate the internal contradictions within the administration and stay true to the strategic goals he has outlined.

Despite these challenges, Rubio’s early statements have already given Azerbaijan hope for a renewed, more balanced relationship with the U.S. His approach to foreign policy, characterized by strength and pragmatism, could lead to closer economic and military ties between the two countries. However, the actions of lobbying groups like the ANCA, which continue to push for policies that favour Armenia, could complicate these efforts. Rubio will need to carefully navigate the political landscape to ensure that U.S. policy reflects the evolving realities of the South Caucasus, rather than being swayed by outdated alliances or political pressures.

In any case, Rubio’s appointment signals a potentially transformative period for U.S.-Azerbaijan relations. With a firm belief in America’s role as a global leader, Rubio’s policies could foster a stronger relationship with Baku. Yet, Azerbaijan must also contend with the continued influence of Armenian lobby groups, which remain intent on shaping U.S. policy to the detriment of Azerbaijan’s interests. The coming months will determine whether Rubio can overcome these challenges and chart a course for U.S.-Azerbaijan relations that benefits both countries.