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Akbar Novruz

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The inauguration ceremony of the newly elected President of the United States, Donald Trump, is set to take place today in Washington, marking a pivotal moment as the power officially shifts from the Biden administration to the Trump administration. Originally scheduled to be held in the west courtyard of the Capitol building, the event has been moved indoors to the Capitol rotunda due to severe cold weather sweeping through the capital. This event marks the beginning of a new political and economic chapter, not just for the United States but for the world at large.

Trump's return to the presidency has already sparked intense global debate, with expectations of dramatic changes in both domestic policies and international relations. These expectations are further fueled by reports from the Republican press group, which revealed that the President-elect plans to sign approximately 100 decrees on his first day in office. Such an aggressive start underscores the likelihood of a decisive and transformative administration, one that many believe will reshape global political and economic dynamics.

Economist Eldeniz Amirov, speaking to Azernews, provided a detailed analysis of the potential global economic shifts that could result from Trump’s policies. Amirov noted that Trump’s economic strategy is already making waves, even before his official swearing-in:

"Trump's return to the presidency promises serious changes in the global economy. Imagine, his proposals such as a 10-20% general tariff increase and a 60% tariff on trade relations with China have already affected the World Bank's forecasts: if these plans are implemented, global economic growth could decrease by an additional 0.3% in 2025!"

Amirov highlighted how Trump’s policies could directly impact global markets, particularly trade relations: "Although US markets are optimistic about Trump's return, investors are wary of the resumption of trade wars. In particular, the Chinese economy - the main trading partner of many countries, such as Australia - will be the main target of these tariffs. A slowing Chinese economy could have an impact on all trading partners by increasing global inflation."

Trump’s economic policies, described by Amirov as "dual in nature," have the potential to create both opportunities and challenges: "On the one hand, tax cuts and deregulation please the markets; on the other hand, tough tariffs and immigration restrictions are creating global uncertainty." These contrasting approaches are likely to intensify debates among investors, policymakers, and economists about the future trajectory of the global economy.

Amirov further emphasized the need for global preparedness in light of Trump’s unpredictable leadership style: "Overall, he will not be the same person he was during his previous presidency. Therefore, his second term promises completely different unexpected decisions and uncertainties for the world economy. Countries should carefully monitor his new term goals and develop appropriate strategies."

The potential ripple effects of Trump’s policies extend beyond trade and markets. Analysts expect shifts in the global balance of power as Trump redefines relationships with key allies and adversaries. His staunch focus on "America First" policies may result in a more transactional approach to international agreements, further complicating global cooperation on issues such as climate change, security, and economic stability.

As the world awaits the outcomes of Trump’s ambitious agenda, it is clear that his second term will bring profound changes. Nations across the globe will need to adapt swiftly to this new reality, crafting strategies to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by Trump’s administration. For now, all eyes remain on Washington, where the ceremony marks the beginning of a presidency that promises to leave a lasting impact on the world stage.

Photo Source: Financial Times