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Qabil Ashirov

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A prominent Greek media outlet recently circulated an article detailing Athens' intention to transfer its Russian-made defense systems, such as the S-300PMU1, Tor-M1, and OSA, to Armenia. These systems are to be replaced with more modern Western and Israeli technologies.

The article highlights significant issues related to Armenian-Greek relations, which many believe represent just the tip of the iceberg.

The outlet cites several reasons for the transfer, noting that Greece faces difficulties in acquiring spare parts due to sanctions imposed on Russia. More importantly, it reads that the reinforcement of Armenia is not solely a Greek initiative but a product of cooperation with France, which will also contribute weapons to bolster Armenia's defenses.

Moreover, the outlet confirms that the number of Armenian students in Greek military schools has doubled, and the number of Armenian special forces training in Greece has increased. Surely, all these means that Armenia does not intend to pursue peace in the region, while some Western countries, like Greece and France, are exacerbating tensions.

Speaking to Azernews, British expert Neil Watson believes that France is the main factor in this decision. He said that France views Armenia as its satellite in the South Caucasus, where there is a void in the former Russian sphere.

“France also wishes to placate its Franco-Armenia, as normal. Greece has participated, due to the ongoing situation in Cyprus and because it views this as a religious conflict.

France and Greece want to impact the possibility of a peace treaty being signed and leave the possibility of a return to conflict, particularly if Pashinyan is replaced,” the British expert noted.

He added that this decision will certainly impact peace talks. Accepting weaponry from any third country is an aggressive move and indicates that Armenia is not serious about peace.

Regarding Azerbaijan’s response, he emphasized that Azerbaijan will not stop the peace talks, but it will mean that it is more forceful in its demands, particularly over the changes to the Armenian constitution that currently make claims on Azerbaijani territory. Armenia has to come to the table waving the white flag of defeat, not seeking rearmament from third countries who have their own agendas.

As for the capabilities of these weapons, Turkish military expert Abdullah Ağar noted that France and Greece are in a state of hostility towards Azerbaijan and Turkey and are attempting to support Armenia within the framework of geopolitical balance.

“It appears they intend to transfer Russian-origin weapons from Greece to Armenia, a move directly related to the Garabagh war. Additionally, France, Greece, the European Union, and the USA have undertaken similar actions with India and Iran. Their objective seems to be using Armenia for their own benefit, to advance a geopolitical agenda aimed at suppressing and surrounding Azerbaijan and Turkey, and to create a deterrent effect through Armenia,” he said.

Ağar pointed out that the weapons being transferred are medium and high-altitude main defence missile systems that Armenia possessed before the Garabagh War.

“During the war, the Azerbaijani army destroyed Armenia's OSAs, Tors, Buks, and S-300s, severely impacting Armenia's main defence missile capability. Now, it seems they are trying to address this gap and weakness. During the Garabagh war, OSAs were destroyed early on, and in the later stages, TORs, BUKs, and S-300s were also targeted. This led to a significant collapse in the Armenian army's inventory,” he said.

Abdullah Ağar opined that currently, Armenia appears to be integrating these new systems while simultaneously replacing them with Western and Israeli weapons. He said that Greece has been renewing its capabilities and is now creating a new inventory from both Israel and the West.

“Azerbaijan is fully aware of and evaluates these developments. In fact, it has demonstrated great success in neutralizing these weapons during the war.

Furthermore, the introduction of Armenian weapons with different levels, areas, and capabilities compels Azerbaijan to develop new measures. Consequently, Azerbaijan has already increased its defence budget by 20-25% on the instructions of Mr Aliyev, adding one billion dollars to the budget. From this perspective, we see that Azerbaijan is making significant advances with its existing and proven weapons in response to Armenia's new capabilities and weapons,” he concluded.