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Qabil Ashirov

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Armenia continues to stick to a policy which impoverished itself and its population for over 30 years. Due to this policy, Armenia turned into an isolated country not only in the South Caucasus but also in the world. The country which was once considered one of the computer technology centres in the post-Soviet space reduced to a deserted country. Thus every sixth person, predominantly youth, is obliged to leave the country to search for their fortune and happiness abroad. At the end of the day, the policy proved to be good-for-nothing and Armenia lost everything within its reputation. However, Yerevan did not take a lesson from the recent past - 44-day war, and the 23-hour anti-terror operation in Garabagh, it continues its policy.

As is known, Armenia had a chance to declare its independence twice in the last 100 hundred years in 1918 and 1991. Despite being 30 years independent in the last 100 years, the little landlocked country managed to wage war with three of four of its neighbours during this time. The country has had territorial claims against all its neighbours. Due to such an irredentist foreign policy, Yerevan channelled all its resources to the military. Thus, according to the Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies (BICC) Armenia became the most militarized country in Europe until the outbreak of the Ukrainian War. According to the report of BICC, Armenia was the third most militarized country in the world after Ukraine and Israel in 2023. Thus, Yerevan allocated over four percent of its GDP to the army which is considered very high in the world. For example, according to Global Fire Power, in 2020 before the 44-day war, the country had more tanks than France and Germany combined. BICC report in 2023 says that the country’s armed forces currently comprise 42,900 active soldiers, 4,300 paramilitaries and a reserve of 210,000. With a current population of 2.7 million, this ratio of almost 15 active soldiers per 1,000 inhabitants is high. If paramilitary forces are included, this figure rises slightly to almost 18.

However, all these attempts did not save Armenia. In 2020, Armenia enjoyed a humiliating defeat before Azerbaijan`s Army. After three years, the Azerbaijani Army made Armenian forces sign the capitulation. In a nutshell, Armenia lost everything which I had gained illegally.

However, channelling a big part of GDP to the army and distracting young people from the labour market had negative consequences and the country failed. That is why, the population decreased from 3.6 million to 3 million over 30 years. All of this had a vicious circle effect. But Armenia has yet to take a lesson. It continues to repeat the same mistakes. For example, Yerevan doubled its military expenditure. The country allocated 6 per cent of its GDP to the army. Armenia tries its best to purchase any kind of lethal weapons from India, and France with the support of the Armenian diaspora.

Needless to say, all of these actions foreshadow future military aggression of Yerevan and make Azerbaijan do the same thing to keep the balance and prevent new genocides like Khojaly. In other words, we are spending millions of dollars on weapons instead of healthcare, culture and development of the country to be well protected against the lunatic regime in Yerevan.

Armenia, based on its militaristic thinking, is also turning its country into an outpost of the countries that sell it or supply weapons. This behaviour turns not only Yerevan but also the South Caucasus into the very hotbed of the conflict. With its revanchist ideology, Armenia is also wagering the region, which casts a shadow over the possibility of long-term peace in the South Caucasus. As for the question of what financial resources can be spent on, the only answer for Armenia can be the development of communications and the improvement of road infrastructure with its neighbours on both its right and left (Azerbaijan and Turkiye).

The Armenian authorities have been trying to take steps in this direction with Turkiye for many years. However, they also understand that it is impossible to realize this if relations with Azerbaijan are not restored. So, Yerevan's dreams are tied to Baku's intentions. Armenia, which focuses on its military arsenal, blindly throws itself into the fire and thinks that it will realise its dreams that have already vanished. Certainly, it will not work and Armenia once again will enjoy a humiliating defeat - just as, whether in 2020 or 2023 - those who sold Armenia weapons were not on the battlefield at that time.