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Akbar Novruz

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Donald Trump proclaimed victory in the 2024 presidential election, stating that “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate.” With former President Donald Trump claiming victory, sparking new waves of optimism and potential for shifts in foreign policy. For Azerbaijan, Trump's return signals the possibility of rekindling an amicable and mutually respectful diplomatic relationship established during his previous administration. He is more disciplined and nimble approach stood out, while President Biden's stumbling and frozen moments raised concerns about his leadership abilities.

What does a Trump victory mean for Azerbaijan?

At the 2023 Shusha Global Media Forum, President Aliyev underscored his appreciation for Trump's policies during his term. Trump’s approach, characterized by a reluctance to initiate new conflicts abroad, aligns with Ilham Aliyev’s vision of prioritizing domestic stability over foreign entanglements. In particular, Aliyev noted Trump’s record of avoiding wars—a notable departure from previous U.S. administrations' military involvements in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. Head of State emphasized, "Under him, America did not start wars, there was no Vietnam, Korea, Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, Syria, etc.," a sentiment that resonates deeply with Azerbaijan's commitment to peaceful coexistence and non-interventionism.

Ilham Aliyev's praise extended to Trump’s stance on traditional values, which he believes mirrors the aspirations of the Azerbaijani people. This common ground fosters not only a political alliance but also a cultural resonance that strengthens bilateral understanding. Azerbaijan’s inclination to work with a Republican-led U.S. government is rooted in past collaborations that focused on pragmatic, mutually beneficial initiatives rather than ideological conflicts.

Track record of cooperation

Democracy and human rights, energy, and security are believed to be the three central pillars of the US South Caucasian policy. Azerbaijan has historically valued its strategic relationship with the United States, particularly during Republican administrations. Under Trump, Aliyev noted that U.S.-Azerbaijan relations were characterized by mutual respect and concrete support. This partnership extended into practical support during Afghanistan’s stabilization efforts, where Azerbaijan played a pivotal role as a transit and supply route, underscoring its reliability as a U.S. ally. Even as U.S. troops departed, Azerbaijani forces stayed until the very end, exemplifying Azerbaijan's commitment to shared security objectives.

Despite this, certain policies—like the continuation of Section 907, which restricts U.S. assistance to Azerbaijan—have posed challenges. This amendment, often seen as counterproductive by Azerbaijan, has affected the overall dynamics of bilateral relations, particularly during Democrat-led administrations. Aliyev expressed disappointment over such unilateral actions, especially given Azerbaijan’s contributions to global peace efforts, and hopes that a new administration might re-evaluate this stance.

Geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus

It is important to note that U.S. foreign policy under Biden, even when aiming to do its best, faced significant challenges during dire times. Even at its worst, there was a diplomat who needed to shed light on, and that is Antony Blinken. The Secretary of State certainly did his best to underscore U.S. policy, but good is not enough. President Ilham Aliyev’s aspirations for strengthened U.S.-Azerbaijan ties are not only about bilateral benefits but also about maintaining a delicate balance in the South Caucasus. Over the months, Azerbaijan voiced concerns over the U.S. and European Union’s military assistance to Armenia under the European Peace Mechanism, a move that the Head of State criticized as contradicting peace principles. The Azerbaijani leader emphasized that Azerbaijan’s sovereignty and interests must be safeguarded, urging that any attempts to undermine these will ultimately prove unsuccessful.

Trump’s previous administration avoided meddling in the political intricacies of the South Caucasus, which Azerbaijan perceives as a prudent approach, respectful of regional dynamics. As Azerbaijan seeks to assert its sovereignty and developmental interests in the region, Trump’s non-interventionist stance could foster an environment where Azerbaijan can pursue stability without external pressures.

Prospective collaboration and mutual benefits: Trump can handle it better than the Democrats.

With Trump’s re-election, Azerbaijan looks forward to enhancing its strategic partnership with the United States. This partnership holds great potential in sectors like energy, infrastructure, and security. In recent years, Azerbaijan has positioned itself as a crucial player in energy security, especially for European markets. An administration that values energy independence aligns with Azerbaijan’s goal of being a reliable energy partner. Most certainly, hopefully, under Trump's administration, all the "omitted spaces" and fake promises under Democrats, will be filled with prospective collaboration.

The 2024 U.S. election presents an opportunity for Azerbaijan to rekindle its relationship with a familiar ally. President Ilham Aliyev’s alignment with Trump’s values and policies lays a strong foundation for a renewed partnership built on respect, non-intervention, and mutual economic and security interests. However, the most undesired scenario between both states is undoubtedly Trump's unpredictability. Despite this, Azerbaijan remains hopeful that a second Trump term will prioritize stability and forge a resilient partnership that advances mutual interests in the region.