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Nazrin Abdul

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President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, has announced that the contract with Gazprom for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will not be renewed. He stated that this issue is resolved for Ukraine, but the country will continue to transit gas produced by other Russian exporters.

According to information published by Bloomberg, if an unexpected situation arises concerning gas transit, Europe's current gas reserves may not be sufficient for the winter season. Additionally, Europe's reserve of compressed gas is limited. This summer, imports of this type of gas to the region decreased by 15-20 percent because Asian countries secured it at more favorable prices.

The contract between Gazprom and Ukraine for natural gas transit expires at the end of this year. This raises the question: how will Europe meet its gas needs?

One solution could be Azerbaijan's gas exports, which bridge Europe and Asia. Azerbaijan transports gas to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor. The Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), part of this corridor, now has a transmission capacity of 12 billion cubic meters per year. From January to June this year, Azerbaijan exported 6.4 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe, an increase of 0.7 billion cubic meters, or 12.3%, compared to the same period in 2023.

Overall, Azerbaijan's gas exports for the first half of the year totaled 12.7 billion cubic meters, marking a 6% increase from the previous year. During this period, Azerbaijan sold 5 billion cubic meters of gas to Turkiye and 1.3 billion cubic meters to Georgia, with exports to both countries remaining stable compared to last year.

Approximately 2.8 billion cubic meters of gas were transported to Turkiye via the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP), maintaining the same level as the previous year.

The TAP, completed in October 2020, stretches 878 kilometers, with 550 kilometers through northern Greece, 215 kilometers through Albania, 105 kilometers under the Adriatic Sea, and 8 kilometers in Italy. Azerbaijani gas began reaching consumers in Italy, Greece, and Bulgaria on December 31, 2020.

Natural gas from Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz field is transported to Turkiye through the South Caucasus Pipeline (Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum) and TANAP. Commercial transportation to Turkiye via TANAP started on June 30, 2018.

Azerbaijan, with its rich energy resources, plans to significantly boost gas exports to Europe in the coming years. As a key player in the European energy market, Azerbaijan aims to enhance its role in the continent's energy security. By prioritizing natural gas exports and increasing the use of solar and wind energy for electricity production, Azerbaijan is strengthening its long-term economic ties with Europe. The "Memorandum of Understanding on Strategic Partnership in the Field of Energy between the European Union and the Republic of Azerbaijan," signed last year, lays the foundation for robust cooperation in energy, addressing the EU’s demand for natural gas and energy security.

In conclusion, as the contract between Ukraine and Gazprom for Russian gas transit nears expiration, Europe's energy landscape faces uncertainty. Azerbaijan emerges as a crucial player, significantly increasing its gas exports to Europe through the Southern Gas Corridor. With TAP and TANAP infrastructure in place, Azerbaijan not only bolsters Europe’s energy security but also strengthens its role as a key energy supplier. The country’s commitment to expanding gas exports and investing in renewable energy underscores its strategic importance in the European energy market. The recent Memorandum of Understanding between Azerbaijan and the European Union further solidifies this partnership, paving the way for enhanced cooperation and long-term energy stability for Europe.

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