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Nazrin Abdul

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Amid the escalating challenges of global warming, Azerbaijan is establishing itself as a reliable energy partner through its active engagement in international efforts. This November, Azerbaijan will host the COP29 summit, uniting global leaders in the collective fight against climate change. The country's declaration of 2024 as the "Year of Solidarity for the Green World" underscores its commitment to addressing global climate challenges.

Azerbaijan's dedication to combating climate change dates back to the 1990s. After ratifying the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1995 and the Kyoto Protocol in 2000, Azerbaijan actively joined international efforts to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change. This commitment was further solidified with the ratification of the Paris Agreement in October 2016.

The Paris Agreement, signed on December 15, 2015, aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C, with a maximum threshold of 2°C above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900). Currently, the global temperature has risen by approximately 1°C. The agreement emphasizes the importance of close cooperation among the 195 signatory countries, encouraging each nation to contribute to climate goals proportionate to its resources, to achieve effective results.

The importance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C

Maintaining global warming at or below 1.5°C is crucial to mitigating the most severe impacts of climate change. Exceeding this threshold could result in catastrophic environmental and socio-economic consequences, including more frequent and intense extreme weather events, accelerated sea-level rise, and significant disruptions to ecosystems and biodiversity. Collaborative global efforts, such as those promoted by the Paris Agreement and initiatives like COP29, are vital in ensuring a sustainable future for all.

Climate change refers to the long-term shift in Earth's average temperatures and weather conditions. Over the last decade, the global average temperature was about 1.2°C warmer than during the late 19th century. Recently, it was confirmed that global warming exceeded 1.5°C from February 2023 to January 2024, following 2023 being declared the warmest year on record. This increase was driven by human-caused climate change, exacerbated by the natural El Niño phenomenon.

Limiting global temperature rises to 1.5°C is crucial to mitigating the worst impacts of climate change. The IPCC warns that a 2°C increase could have far more severe consequences than a 1.5°C rise, including: Extreme hot days being on average 4°C warmer in mid-latitudes; sea-level rise 0.1m higher, exposing up to 10 million more people to frequent flooding; loss of more than 99% of coral reefs compared to 70-90% at 1.5°C; twice the number of plants and vertebrates exposed to unsuitable climate conditions; several hundred million more people at risk of climate-related poverty by 2050.

The call to limit warming to 1.5°C aims to avoid crossing "tipping points," beyond which changes could accelerate and become irreversible, such as the collapse of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nearly 200 countries pledged to keep global warming to 1.5°C, aiming for "net zero" CO2 emissions by 2050. Net zero involves reducing emissions as much as possible and removing any remaining emissions from the atmosphere. Despite these commitments, greenhouse gas levels continue to rise quickly, and the IPCC indicates that the world is likely to warm beyond 1.5°C. However, progress has been made in areas such as renewable energy and electric vehicles.

Azerbaijan's commitment to achieving zero carbon emissions

One of the primary objectives in the fight against climate change is achieving zero carbon emissions. Carbon emissions encompass the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other carbon-based substances released into the atmosphere. These emissions are significant contributors to global warming and climate change. An increase in CO2 levels can disrupt natural balances, adversely affecting ecosystems, human health, and the global climate.

At the 2019 DAVOS Forum, the global community set a target to achieve zero carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. Azerbaijan has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 35 percent from 1991 levels by 2030. While specific targets vary by country, the overarching goal is to return to the emission levels of 1950.

In 2021, at the 26th conference of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) held in Glasgow, Scotland, Azerbaijan announced a new target to support global efforts. As an additional voluntary commitment, Azerbaijan declared its intention to reduce emissions by 40 percent by 2050. This ambitious goal includes establishing a net zero emission zone in territories recently liberated from occupation, further demonstrating Azerbaijan's dedication to combating climate change.

Human contribution to climate change

Human activities are causing a significant rise in global temperatures, leading to more intense heatwaves and rising sea levels. The situation is expected to worsen in the coming decades, but scientists argue that urgent action can still limit the worst effects of climate change.

While the Earth's climate has historically fluctuated due to natural factors, the rapid warming observed in the last century is primarily attributed to human activities, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The widespread use of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and gas—in homes, factories, and transportation releases greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2), trapping extra energy in the atmosphere and causing the planet to heat up. Since the Industrial Revolution, atmospheric CO2 levels have risen by about 50%, with the CO2 from fossil fuel combustion bearing a distinctive chemical fingerprint.

The global temperature increase of 1.2°C over the past decade has had profound environmental impacts, including more frequent and intense extreme weather events, such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall, rapid melting of glaciers and ice sheets, contributing to sea-level rise, significant declines in Arctic sea ice, ocean warming.

These changes have also affected human lives. For instance, East Africa experienced its worst drought in 40 years, putting over 20 million people at risk of severe hunger, while intense European heatwaves in 2022 led to an abnormal increase in deaths.

Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change, with those in poorer countries expected to suffer the most due to limited resources for adaptation. This raises fairness concerns, as these regions have historically contributed a small percentage of greenhouse gas emissions. Nonetheless, the broader impacts, such as global food price increases due to crop failures linked to extreme weather, could affect many regions.

World leaders meet annually to discuss climate commitments. At the recent COP28 summit in the United Arab Emirates, countries agreed to "transition away from fossil fuels," although specific actions were not mandated. The next conference, COP29, will be held in Azerbaijan in November 2024.

Azerbaijan has embarked on several successful projects in renewable energy and possesses substantial potential in this sector. The country has established significant partnerships with global energy leaders such as Masdar, ACWA Power, and bp.

Azerbaijan is advancing its green energy agenda through major projects, including the commissioning of a 230-megawatt solar power plant and the near-completion of a 240-megawatt solar power plant. In June of this year, the foundations were laid for three new solar and wind power plants in Baku, with a combined capacity of one gigawatt. Recognizing Azerbaijan's energy potential, leading companies like Masdar, ACWA Power, and bp are investing heavily in the country.

It should be noted that Azerbaijan's renewable energy potential is impressive, with an estimated 135 GW of technical potential on land and 157 GW at sea. The economic potential includes 27 GW from renewable sources, comprising 3,000 MW from wind energy, 23,000 MW from solar energy, 380 MW from bioenergy, and 520 MW from mountain rivers.

In conclusion, urgent and comprehensive action at all levels is essential to address the multifaceted challenge of climate change and secure a sustainable future for the planet.

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