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Elnur Enveroglu

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At a time when the tension between Ukraine and Russia continues, the statements of the United States regarding the South Caucasus have caused a resonance. James O'Brien, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs of the United States of America, touched on many points while speaking at the hearing held at the Foreign Relations Committee of the Senate of the Congress. However, the main target of the American diplomat was still the issue of Armenia.

US-Azerbaijan relations have always developed in a stable form over the past 30 years, and both political and economic relations between the two states have been maintained in a balanced manner. At the same time, the United States has closely followed the processes in the South Caucasus from 2020 to the present day, and, in particular, Washington has tried to show considerable initiative in settling the peace issue, even though no final result has been achieved between Yerevan and Baku.

This time, the issue related to the region was raised in the US Congress, and during the hearings, peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia, relations between Armenia and Russia, and the issue of Georgia were discussed in parallel.

James O'Brien highlighted the processes between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the region, drawing attention to the unequivocalness of the peace talks and saying that the US side wants this matter to be completed quickly.

He said that the completion of peace talks in a short period of time can facilitate the trade relations of the regional states with Central Asia by opening a new connection through the South Caucasus, including Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the same time, the diplomat said that if communication from the South Caucasus to Central Asia is maintained, the dependence on Russia will decrease.

As for the peace negotiations, the Armenian Foreign Ministry says its response proposals regarding the peace treaty with Azerbaijan are being prepared.

Why is US in hurry to hold Baku-Yerevan peace talks?

On the other hand, Russia's offer to participate as a third party in the peace talks has not gone unnoticed by the United States. Until now, Baku has participated in the peace platforms offered by both the West and Moscow, and unlike Armenia, it has not rejected any platform. But how have all these meetings been able to have a positive effect on the processes so far?

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova's statement that "Russia has taken responsibility for this" shows that Moscow intends to somehow exclude the West from the processes. Zakharova said that the scope and forms of such support should be acceptable to both Baku and Yerevan: "We are ready to provide a platform for negotiations in the bilateral format preferred by the parties. We consider the conclusion of a balanced agreement between our two allies to be the basis of peace architecture. This should be done not by external forces, but by the countries of the region."

Therefore, this initiative campaign, which has turned into a contest, creates the basis for a clash between the West and Russia over the South Caucasus. For this, let's look again at O'Brien's statements. In his speech, he also emphasised the creation of conditions for the complete separation of Yerevan from Moscow. In parallel with the peace platform, the USA is also trying to put all its efforts in the direction of deepening the Russian-Armenian rift. Speaking at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearings, James O'Brien applauded the "bold" steps Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took to distance himself from relations with Russia.

"A significant part of the Armenian population wants to get away from Russia. Thus, we (American authorities - Note) create conditions for this to happen," the US diplomat said.

US sanction warning to Georgia

The sudden change of direction of the issue in the process of negotiations regarding the accession of Georgia in the European Union brought different questions to the fore. Georgia is one of the three states closest to the West in the South Caucasus, and due to internal political complexity, the issue of joining the union is pending. Thus, at the Brussels summit, the discussions on the conflicting aspects of the Georgian laws were decided by the fact that the country's full accession to the EU is unacceptable.

Georgia was only granted EU candidate country status last December after being given a list of steps it needed to take to proceed, including justice reform.

Last day, Washington’s hint of imposing new sanctions against Georgia was another yellow card given its on-hold status to the EU membership. It seems that the failure of the West's hopes regarding Georgia has prompted it to resort to harsh measures.

“US authorities hope that Tbilisi will change course in the coming months,” James O'Brien said in his speech to Congress.

"You asked about sanctions. We are actively reviewing our current capabilities in this area. I won't announce anything, but we are looking into it. It is not only about those who benefit from corruption but also about those who participate in the violation of human rights under the Global Magnitsky Human Rights Act.

A year ago, we saw that the wrong path was chosen, and then the ruling party changed its course and achieved great success. I hope that this can be repeated in the next few months," the diplomat said.

The question arises: What kind of fate can await Georgia if it suddenly ignores the wishes of the West? Or if Pashinyan, who acts more whimsically towards Moscow now, turns to Russia again one day, how will Western policy regarding the South Caucasus change?

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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews’ deputy editor-in-chief; follow him on @ElnurMammadli1

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