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Elnur Enveroglu

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The political structure in Armenia is suffering from such a complexity that it is difficult to predict the stability of the internal situation. Nikol Pashinyan's re-election as Prime Minister after a heavy defeat in 2020 was not convincing to majority, but it happened again by fluke. However, in the internal structure, it seems that anger against Pashinyan's administration has not cooled yet.

It is a matter of the religious sections of Armenia, i.e. the representative of the Mother See of Holy Etchmiadzin, Archbishop Arshak Khachatryan's inability to forgive Pashinyan for the defeat. Arshak Khachtryan blames Pashinyan for political instability and notes that if he had handed over the post of the current prime minister to someone else, maybe Armenia would not have lost its "artsakh", that is, the Garabagh region of Azerbaijan.

Of course, if we approach through certain calculations we may disagree with Khachatryan at some point. First of all, the Azerbaijani army was much stronger and prepared compared to Armenia, and secondly, the main reason why Armenia could not keep Garabagh under siege for a long time is that the country is closed to giant economic relations with neighboring countries (except for Iran and Georgia). It should be taken into account that Armenia's eastern neighbor, that is, Azerbaijan, has been participating in large-scale projects that have gained influence up to the borders of Europe in thirty years. Armenia has almost deprived itself of this. If we say that the main arsenal of Armenia is made up of Russian weapons, this would be a bit of a pity for Armenia. Of course, weapons and support donated by the West, especially France, as well as India, cannot be excluded here. But is the defeat of Armenia only related to armament? That is, does Khachatryan's blaming Pashinyan agree with the truth?

The Armenian cleric believes that if someone other than Pashinyan was in power, he could at least ensure Armenia's stay in Garabagh, even if he/she could not lead Armenia to complete victory. So the issue is not only about weapons and war.

It is clear from Khachatryan's statements that religious leaders in Armenia are mostly engaged inviting the masses to extreme revanchism and hostility by influencing the mentality. During the Second Garabagh War back in 2020, when Armenian soldiers threw down their weapons and tried to run, it became clear that the masses were fed up with the hypothetical propaganda of the government. It is impossible to think realistically and instill the concept of the homeland into the brains of the masses by appropriating someone else's territory. For this reason, it became necessary to act on the factors that can have a greater impact on the masses in the country.

Etchmiadzin does not want to admit the reality under any circumstances, and therefore the visit of the Catholicos to the West can be a continuation of this war. The Armenian PM understood that the Armenian Apostolic Church is now his main opponent, because the opposition is virtually non-existent and has no power, so he did not allow the Catholicos' Christmas address on television, knowing that it would criticize the authorities for recognizing Garabagh as part of Azerbaijan.

The Armenian Catholicos, in turn, calls the territory of Azerbaijan a "betrayal" to the Armenians of the world. This is the main foundational principle of the next obstacle on the way to the peace process between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews’ Deputy Editor-in-Chief, follow him on @ElnurMammadli1

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