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Qabil Ashirov

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Recently, France's top diplomat Catherine Colonna announced that her country is ready to deliver weapons to Armenia. She noted that France had given its agreement to the conclusion of future contracts with Armenia which would allow the delivery of military equipment to Armenia so that it can ensure its defense.

Actually, she did not clarify what kinds of weapons would be delivered, but it is clear that Armenia is going to diversify its arms suppliers. As is known, Russia had long been Armenia's main supplier of military hardware and ammunition. However, Armenia has increased its defense budget and its military budget has surpassed $1bn successively for two years. Besides, Armenia purchased different types of weapons from India and international media outlets claim that extra contracts were signed between the two countries. It seems France will be the next big arms supplier for Armenia after India. Besides, the rhetoric of the French Foreign Minister and Defense Minister foreshadows that the country aims to stir up the region by arming Hayestan and trying to change the balance of power.

Speaking to Azernews on the issue, the military expert Ramil Mammadli noted that from 2015-2016, differences of opinions began to form between Russia and Armenia in a number of directions, and these diversities also led to the application of a number of restrictions on arms sales to Armenia. He said that only the previously signed contracts, such as the sale of Iskandar tactical missiles, Smerch missiles, etc., were implemented.

"However, after that period, almost no agreement over fundamental and strategic deals was signed. If we dig a little deeper, we see that one of the reasons for this is the warming of relations between Armenia and the West. Of course, Armenian-Western relations made Russia reconsider this issue regarding the supply of weapons. The reason that pushed Armenia to turn to France and India was the emergence of a different process. Undoubtedly, the main reason was the war in Ukraine. As is known, immediately after Russia's war in Ukraine, Russia imposed a restriction on the export of military products abroad," Ramil Mammadli said.

He pointed out that simultaneously, a number of countries allied to Russia, such as Belarus and Kazakhstan, which manufactures the products of the Soviet-Russian military industry, also imposed restrictions on exports. In this case, Armenia began to renew cooperation with India, which partially produces these products or produces a more modernized version, and the previous negotiations were resumed. He noted that one of the main factors in the strengthening of military cooperation between India and Armenia is the close relations between Azerbaijan and Pakistan.

"As for France, this country is an old ally of Armenia. Even during the time of the USSR, French-Armenian relations existed as a separate line, and thanks to this line, bilateral cooperation in the field of culture was carried out. Certainly, the Armenian lobby in France played an active role here. Now, France is considering selling air defense systems to Armenia initially. Of course, although this is a strategic weapon, it cannot be considered a serious threat to Azerbaijan, because it is not an offensive weapon. However, let's not forget one point the radar systems of the air defense forces have the ability to scan the area, that is, the airspace. Depending on its strength, this scanning can increase or decrease. This makes it possible to see the deep airspace of Azerbaijan," Military Pundit told.

Touching on the possible changing of balance, the military expert emphasized that these weapons cannot change the balance of power. Because first of all, Armenia lags behind Azerbaijan; secondly Azerbaijan strengthens its arsenal as well.

As for increasing of military budget, Ramil Mammadli pointed out that the figure is not very important, because it is known that the prices of military products are rising all over the world. He added that social demand has also increased. Let's not forget that the increase in defense costs does not only mean the purchase of weapons and ammunition but is also used to pay the current costs of power structures.

"Besides, as far as I know, Armenia is negotiating the purchase of offensive weapons from France. The gradual purchase of such weapons from India has already begun. However, Azerbaijan is implementing its measures in this direction. It is taking serious steps towards further modernization of the army. Strengthens the air defense system. It is taking real steps towards obtaining more sophisticated offensive weapons. In particular, I would like to note that the weapons and equipment park of the Azerbaijani army has been sufficiently strengthened, updated, and perfected over the past three years. In the word, Armenia cannot be superior to Azerbaijan from a military point of view with this budget and these countries," the expert underlined.

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Qabil Ashirov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @g_Ashirov

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