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Rena Murshud

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After the fiasco of the separatist groups in Garabagh, Armenian terrorism has become much more active. Many video footage of intensive training of terrorist groups have been circulated on social media. This once again shows that Armenian armed groups strengthened their revanchist position after being disarmed and removed from Azerbaijan’s Garabagh.

Armenia, which on the one hand blames Russia and on the other hand international organizations, tries to express its aggression through terrorism.

It should be recalled that at one time the ASALA organization, under the leadership of Monte Melkonyan, carried out several terrorist incidents in France, Lebanon and other countries. I wonder if any Armenian terrorism can happen after Azerbaijan's anti-terrorist measures? Or will Armenia turn to the West again and play the role of a mediator in implementing France's crusading policy in the Middle East in the South Caucasus?

"As a result of the 28-year occupation of Garabagh, which is currently the territory of Azerbaijan, there have been changes in geopolitical balances. However, starting from 2020, Azerbaijan liberated its lands and became a regional power in the Caucasus and was able to maintain balance in the region thanks to the perfect strategy, political course and strong army."

Turkish military expert Yücel Karauz said these words in a comment to AZERNEWS.

According to him, with its victory, Azerbaijan changed the outdated political scheme of 1991 and even influenced the system of the 1800s. The expert noted that currently, other parties with an interest in the region should also come to terms with these realities, but on the contrary, they are creating conditions for Armenia to resort to terrorism.

"It seems that Armenia does not want to come to terms with the current situation and is trying to strengthen terrorism in the last option. Of course, it is impossible for Armenia to implement them alone. In fact, Armenia acts as a proxy state on behalf of France, the United States and other countries. I reminded that Armenia once acted on the instructions of Russia. But when it received the support it expected from Russia, it turned its direction to France and other Western countries."

According to the military expert, all this cannot be considered a great threat to Azerbaijan. Provocations against the government is expected in both Turkiye and Azerbaijan though hands of internal factors. But the truth is that their influence cannot hinder the activity of either Turkiye or Azerbaijan in the new geopolitical reality.

Yücel Karauz also touched on the increase of anti-Russian mood in Armenia.

"Currently, Armenia has gradually distanced Russia from the position of a geopolitical and geostrategic partner. Perhaps, in the future, Armenians may demand the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers stationed in Gyumri and other borders. Preparations are underway. But for Armenia, which lived under the control of the Soviet Union for 70 years, this is not an easy decision. Because its negative effects will last for a long time. The influence of the EU on Armenia worries Iran in particular. Because either Pashinyan or the leader who will replace him will continue the work of the West. But even if the prime minister changes in Armenia, the country will not be able to maintain its internal stability, nor will it be able to move towards economic development," the military expert added.

Yücel Karauz also touched on the issue of France. He called France's crusading policy in the South Caucasus, using Armenia, a weak strategy. The expert noted that at the current stage it seems unrealistic that France can achieve what it wants in the region.

"France is trying to use its lost reputation in Africa and its ineffectiveness in the European Union and NATO as an attempt to intervene in the Caucasus. Because the geography of the Caucasus is in harmony with the world geography and geostrategic interests. Although France is trying to be a leader in the region, I don't think it will be successful. Because France's behavior and biased position increased mistrust towards it in the South Caucasus," Yücel Karauz added.

In conclusion, the military expert expressed his opinion about Pashinyan's rule and noted that the clans in the West and Armenia want to end Pashinyan's era. According to the West, the defeat of a state should bear both military and political responsibility. In this regard, Pashinyan will probably be removed from his post. But a new pro-Western leader must be replaced.

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Rena Murshud is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @RenaTagiyeva

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