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Rena Murshud

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Currently, Armenia in a mood of bellicose jingoism, tries to wage war against Azerbaijan gathering weapons and heavy armored artillery near the border with Azerbaijan. Getting emboldened by its warmongering Western allies and partners, Armenia aims an attack against Azerbaijani territory by targeting the positions of the Azerbaijani army.

It should be noted that the weapons provided by India to Armenia in the amount of almost $250 million were transferred on the basis of a military agreement signed between the two countries. At the same time, there is a high probability that the Western side will also supply weapons to Armenia. If so, this could lead to India and the West supporting a war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Of course, in response to such an aggression by Armenia and its allies, Azerbaijan has Shusha Declaration in hand to put forward as a countermeasure against Armenia and its allies sponsoring weapons and ammunition.

As is known, the Shusha Declaration, signed on June 15, 2021 in the city of Shusha, is an agreement on allied relations between Azerbaijan and Turkiye.

According to the paragraph regarding the current position of the Declaration, “If, in the opinion of one of the parties, there is a threat or an act of aggression from a third state or states against their independence, sovereignty, territorial integrity, the inviolability or security of their internationally recognized borders, the parties will hold joint consultations and, in order to eliminate this threat or acts of aggression, carry out initiatives in accordance with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and provide each other with the necessary assistance in accordance with the UN Charter. After determining through urgent discussions the volume and form of such possible assistance, a decision will be made to secure defense needs for the adoption of joint measures and coordinated activities will be organized of power-wielding and administrative agencies of the Armed Forces."

Thus, it means for Armenia, taking any wrong step against Azerbaijan is also being against Turkiye.

However, there another speculation whether it is a bluff by Armenia or a true intention of a bellicose country.

“The likelihood of a battle is very high. What Armenia is doing is not a bluff, since it has been trying to gain time for 34 months out of a sense of revanchism.”

Turkish reserve General Yucel Karauz, told this in a comment for AZERNEWS.

“Trying to gain time, Armenia, as a country that has destroyed 65 of its 100 armies, received weapons and supplies from India and other Western countries,” he added.

According to the military expert, Armenia’s goal is to bring the event to a dead end, to make it multifaceted, to include the United States and the European Union in it, to try to find justifications and grounds for the war that will occur at the next stage. The country is also trying to provoke terrorist activity by creating an atmosphere of conflict and acting as the first act of Armenia's two-act play on inviting foreign military forces to the region. This is combined with behavior that will increase political tensions, such as the US military exercises, Iranian statements and the so-called elections in Khankendi.

"However, despite all this, the Azerbaijani army is ready for battle as a victorious and powerful army. Because the victorious Commander-in-Chief, President of the Republic of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev pays attention and care to the formation of the army, both in training and in continuing to create units suitable for combat conditions as well as modernization of weapons and technical services. President Ilham Aliyev set new goals for the creation of an army in the victory parade after the trilateral war between Azerbaijan, Russia and Armenia, and also set the goal of switching to the model of the Turkish army. After this, the Azerbaijani army formed into a more effective, more deterrent, more mobile and more suitable organization. And over the past 33 months, the Army has become more combative, applying lessons learned from the last war. After this, Azerbaijan will have no choice but with a strong army and fighting ability to contribute to peace and harmony in this region. The Azerbaijani army is among the leading armies in the world and is considered the most powerful army in the Caucasus," Yucel Karauz emphasized.

In conclusion, speaking about the Shusha Declaration, the military expert Yucel Karauz stated that according to the Shusha Declaration, in the event of a war, an attack on the territorial integrity and legitimacy of Azerbaijan will be considered an attack on Turkiye, based on the principle that the security of Ankara passes through Baku, and the security of Baku passes via Ankara. In this context, Turkiye will provide Azerbaijan with all types of material, moral, military and political support in accordance with the current situation and requirements of Azerbaijan. Because this is an issue that will be within the framework of an agreement between two independent states concluded within the framework of international law. In fact, one of Armenia’s goals is to create a conflict situation here and try to turn this war into a multinational one, in which more than one country will participate, both for itself and for Azerbaijan.

“Turkiye and Azerbaijan are brotherly countries since the past, and they are strong allies in all spheres," the military expert concluded.

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Rena Murshud is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @RenaTagiyeva

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