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Qabil Ashirov

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Armenia again tried to show some exaggerated economic figures by launching its imaginary development analysis. Thus, Armenian media outlets claim that some international economic institutions announced that the GDP per capita of Armenia will be over $8,000 in 2023, versus Azerbaijan’s GDP per capita totaled $7,800 in 2023. This whole fictitious calculation is really an economic section of an Armenian lie. Where and how to get the information is another matter. Actually, although it is not very interesting to investigate, Armenia's attempt to keep itself on the same level as Azerbaijan based on these mysterious numbers has led to the depth of the issue.

But what will happen, if really the GDP per capita of Armenia overtakes the GDP of Azerbaijan? The answer is short: nothing. Because we observed quite similar situation before.

Let no one think that we took this matter seriously. Perhaps the Armenian side, which exaggerated these numbers, believed in it more than anyone else. We are not talking about the population yet, because considering that Armenia has only 2.5 million inhabitants, it is perhaps understandable that the country's GDP per capita has reached this level. But this is still under question. In order to understan the situation a way better, let's be a bit more specific about the background of the both countries.

First of all, it should be noted that oil has been considered the most strategic commodity for 150 years, and therefore Moscow integrated Azerbaijan more than other South Caucasus countries during the USSR making it its own backyard. Azerbaijani oils were one of the major factors in the Soviet victory over the Nazis. It was so precious for Moscow that newly founded oil wells in Siberia in the 1940s were called Baku 1, Baku 2, and so on. So, Azerbaijan’s economy integrated into Moscow to such a degree that when the Soviet Union collapsed Azerbaijan suffered more than its neighbors. In 1992, in the first year of independence of three countries in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan was the poorest country with $60 GDP per capita. It is worth noting that the then-GDP per capita of Armenia was over $356. In other words, it was 6 times more than Azerbaijan.

However, Azerbaijan’s economy recovered itself very soon and the GDP of Azerbaijan ramped up by 175 times and GDP per capita by 130. At the same period, the GDP of Armenia increased by 17 times and GDP per capita grew by 22 times. From these statistics, we can see that the growth trend of Azerbaijan's economy proved to be 10 times more than Armenia's.

Besides, as mentioned earlier, the demography of the two countries also should be taken into account. When the Soviet Union collapsed the population of Azerbaijan was 7 million, and the population of Armenian totaled 3.5 million. Over 30 years, the population of Azerbaijan increased by 40 percent totaling over 10 million, and the population of Armenia decreased by 30 percent amounting to 2.6 million. So, if the population of Azerbaijan had decreased by 30 percent as happened in Armenia and become 5 million, the GDP per capita would have amounted to $15,600, which is twice more present GDP per capita of Armenia.

Besides, we also should not miss the most important factor. Unlike Armenia, 20 percent of Azerbaijan's territories were invaded. Azerbaijan could not use its natural resources and agriculture in the occupied territories. To top it all off, Azerbaijan was obliged to settle over 750,000 IDPs from the territories under Armenian occupation, 250,000 refugees from Armenia, and over 300,000 other people i.e. Georgian Azerbaijanis, Meskhetins, Chechens, and so on.

Simultaneously, Azerbaijan conducted mass infrastructure constructions which Armenia has never ever done before. Let's take highways, for example. Over two decades, Armenia could only finish five percent of the highway stretching from the border with Iran to the border with Georgia, which is part of the International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC).

Moreover, it is very interesting that Armenia considers INSTC as a guarantor to its statehood, but for 20 years, it cannot finish the part that falls Armenia. In Armenian media outlets, even today the experts debate which country should build the highway instead of them. Iran and India are the most mentioned countries. However, Azerbaijan constructed two big 4-lane highways from Baku to Georgia, and from the Russian border to the Iranian border. Moreover, Azerbaijan not only constructed the part of BTK railways that falls on Azerbaijan's territory but also financed the construction of the part that falls on Georgia.

In parallel with all these, Azerbaijan built a strong army by spending billions to train its servicemen and purchase brand-new weapons. Today, Azerbaijan's army is considered one of the most capable armies in the world.

Furthermore, Azerbaijan is considered one of the most important oil and gas suppliers in the world. In addition, to oil and gas mega projects, Azerbaijan launched green energy projects. According to the last investigations, Azerbaijan has 200 GW of green energy potential. Azerbaijan intends to turn part of this potential into electricity and to sell to Europe. It should be noted that probably Armenia has green energy as well. They have never tried to launch similar projects, but they were used to bolster how Armenians were creative and so on.

Azerbaijan's foreign trade turnover always results in surpluses. Due to it, the foreign exchange reserves of Azerbaijan increase year by year. However, totally opposite situation happens in Armenia. Foreign trade turnover of Armenia results in a deficit. Wrongly, many relate this situation to oil and gas. Besides oil and gas, other sectors flourish in Azerbaijan as well. Take agriculture, for example. Azerbaijan ranks in first place in the export of persimmon, in the top 5 in the export of hazel, in the top 11 in the export of tomatoes, in the top 20 in the export of apples, and so on. Taking into account that in terms of water, Armenia is richer than Azerbaijan and 20 percent of Azerbaijan was under Armenia over 30 years, Armenia should have had better results in agriculture. However, we see the opposite. We can say the same words in tourism, in mining, in textile and other sectors.

Finally, it should be noted that the increase in the Armenian economy is not healthy but hormonised. Because the increase relates to the capital shift from Russia to Armenia. Everybody knows very well that soon or late the Russian-Ukrainian war will be over, and the Russian capital will return home. In this case, the Armenian economy will have hard times.

In conclusion, Armenia and Azerbaijan have had different economic challenges and opportunities. Unlike Armenia, Azerbaijan strictly and determinedly worked on it and reap the benefits. Speaking about success based only upon one criterion is whitewashing. Taking into account all criteria, some easily could conclude that Armenia is the last country in the world to compare itself with Azerbaijan.

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Qabil Ashirov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @g_Ashirov

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