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Rena Murshud

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Although the Armenian separatist forces understand that the next war will be merciless for them, they still continue their provocative activities in the Garabagh Economic Region. So, since last week, a group of separatist groups has started to dig trenches and build defense fortifications in the territory of the country using the protection of peacekeeping forces. On the other hand, the armed forces of Armenia have started deploying artillery installations against the positions of the Azerbaijani Army around Lachin.

The unfortunate fact is that what is happening is happening before the eyes of the Russian peacekeeping units. This means that the peacekeepers not only fail to fulfill their mission but also grossly violate Article 4 of the November 10 agreement. According to that article, all separatist formations had to be completely removed from the territory of Garabagh. Therefore, the provocations of the illegal Armenian military units in Azerbaijan's Garabagh are yet underway.

Speaking to Azernews, political analyst Ilgar Valizade commented on the above issue, saying that the Russian peacekeepers were brought into the region to establish peace. According to him, their task is not to achieve a temporary peace, standing between the armed forces.

"Their main function is to create conditions for the establishment of certain communications between the Armenian minority and Azerbaijanis living in Garabagh. However, they place the Armenian armed forces in the territory allegedly to create a certain guarantee of security for the Armenian society living in Garabagh,” he said.

Touching upon the following action of the peacekeepers, the expert noted that the next stage is to create a certain dialogue between official Baku and the Armenian minority in Garabagh. The Russian peacekeepers had to guarantee to hold a dialogue. However, the reality is that the peacekeepers have not fulfilled their mandate yet.

The pundit stressed that Azerbaijan cannot turn a blind eye to this. There should not be a separatist regime there.

"At the moment, a transformation process should be carried out in this region, and not a conservation process that has been observed for 30 years. Also, the Armenians living in the region must be reintegrated into Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, former IDPs must return to their homeland and live in peace with the Armenians. Unfortunately, these processes have not yet been implemented," the expert added.

Also speaking about the duties of the Russian peacekeepers in Azerbaijan's Garabagh, Russian political analyst, head of the PolitRUS portal Vitaly Arkov expressed his satisfaction about the current activity of the peacekeeping contingent in Garabagh, in the territory of Azerbaijan, adding that "they clearly fulfill their duties, which is extremely difficult in the face of constant provocations - mostly and surprisingly, from the Armenian side.

As regards the Armenian provocations in Garabagh, the Russian expert said that, If some people are digging trenches in Garabagh (an internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan), then it is obvious that this is a preparation for defense, but not for an attack.

"Yes, we can say that revanchist sentiments are very strong both in Garabagh and in Armenia. But everyone who is sane understands that Yerevan has no chance in the event of a new military conflict with Baku to regain control of Shusha, Lachin, and other Azerbaijani cities and lands," he noted.

According to Arkov, one should not expect a serious offensive operation from the members of illegal armed groups still remaining in Garabagh. In addition, their numbers are very low, in order to even try to carry out a large-scale seizure of territories. However, this does not exclude an increase in the intensity of provocations, such as shelling of the positions of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces; which in the end can lead to Baku conducting a conditional counter-terrorist operation to clean up Garabagh from the remnants of militants.

"Both Khankendi and Yerevan are well aware of what kind of response actions Baku will lead to both digging trenches and intensifying shelling. This is an obvious new provocation from the Armenian side - a kind of political trap in which Yerevan and its Western curators want to catch Baku, and at the same time Moscow - as a moderator of the peace process in the South Caucasus. On the eve of the discussion of the status of the Armenian minority living in Garabagh in the UN Security Council, it is obvious that Armenia is resorting to deliberate provocations," he concluded.

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Rena Murshud is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @RenaTagiyeva

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