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Elnur Enveroglu

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The issue of the establishment of peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the precise definition of borders, i.e., the completion of delimitation and demarcation works, and most importantly, the complete removal of separatist elements from Garabagh in accordance with the capitulation document signed by Armenia on November 10, 2020, still remains outstanding and is a matter of question. It should be noted that the orderly resolution of this complementary sequence falls on both Armenia, which is considered the objective party, and Russia, which is the mediating party in the negotiations. Because after the declaration of November 10, 2020, Russia deployed peacekeeping units on the territory of Azerbaijan, and since that time, it has been continuing its mission in the region as the most closely involved partner in the processes.

In addition, the restoration of peace between the parties was based on five principles put forward by the Azerbaijan, some of which, as mentioned earlier, have not yet been resolved.

If we are talking about a peace agreement, first of all, it is necessary to pay attention to the processes taking place in Azerbaijan’s Garabagh, Khankendi, and parallel to this, in Yerevan. The provocations of Armenia regarding the operation of the Lachin Border Checkpoint, as well as the blocking of the Aghdam-Khankendi road by separatist forces are one of the reasons that are currently seriously slowing down the issue of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Another problem is the changeable manner of the Armenian leadership, i.e., its double standards and its denial of the issues agreed upon in the negotiations every time.

Both the West and Russia, which have joined the processes today, clearly see that concrete results related to peace in the region cannot be achieved with the arbitrary behavior of the Prime Minister of Armenia. That is why the Russian Foreign Ministry, while expressing its opinion on the processes, noted that the parties should not rush the peace agreement. The quotation from Deputy Director of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry Alexei Zaitsev can be approached in two ways. The first is Russia's intention to continue its participation in the processes for a long time and thereby gain time and maintain its presence in the region against the backdrop of the ongoing (Russo-Ukraine) war. When paying attention to the views of the state official, it is clear that Russia does not intend to fully play the cards in its hands regarding its full engagement with the processes in the South Caucasus. Because for Russia, the Western factor, which is its only competitor in the region, is still seen as a potential threat.

Secondly, by using this phrase, the Russian official is also trying to limit all the possibilities of the West in the region. There is no doubt that Russia clearly views the initiatives of Western forces and the European mission group near the Lachin border. It also understands why the negotiations in Washington and Brussels are so critical for the West. So in the words of the Russian diplomat, “There is no need to force the process. It has to go as long as necessary to get high-quality, reliable agreements at the exit. It may be beneficial for someone to speed up the process, to achieve something as soon as possible, but the question is how it will then be carried out,” he tried to allude to the West.

In conclusion, everyone knows very well that the achievement of lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia is extremely important for both the region and the interested parties. It can be said with certainty that both the West and Russia have the potential to resolve the issue unambiguously with a decisive initiative. However, the current conditions show that both sides are somehow interested in slowing down the processes. Undoubtedly, Azerbaijan is capable of protecting its sovereignty with Armenia on its own either in the format of constructive negotiations or with certain pressures. However, for permanent peace in the region, it is very important for the Armenian side to show understanding and put aside the non-constructive approach. Now is the time to take advantage of real opportunities for economic development in the region. The war has shown once again that losses are insignificant in every way and for both sides - although Azerbaijan still has a strong military potential, given any outcome.

Currently, the initiatives for peace are also the steps taken to open the Zangazur corridor. Azerbaijan presented its most optimal proposals to Armenia within the framework of the principles of close neighborhood with all its strength. Armenia should also understand that pursuing a group of separatists for the development of the country does not promise any positive results for the country's future. On the contrary, when Armenia's communication with Garabagh is completely cut off, those proposals will also lose their force. Undoubtedly, in the end, the fate of neighboring Tehran may await Yerevan as well!

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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews’ deputy editor-in-chief, follow him on @ElnurMammadli1

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