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Qabil Ashirov

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Distance in fact, makes no matter in hostility and biased politics. Sometimes, when you expect evil deeds from a bad neighbor, you see it coming from an unexpected side. The French state, which is located about five thousand kilometers from Azerbaijan, can be attributed to the category of forces that are recognized as opposing enemies. While France behaved quietly and discreetly during the 30-year occupation period, after November 10, 2020, it completely changed its political vector. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan always tried to maintain relations with France, both during the period of occupation and after it.

So, Azerbaijan did not object to France to become a member of the Minsk Group and signed a contract with French company Total Energy over the extraction of natural gas in the Caspian Sea. However, the Second Karabakh War ended in a humiliating defeat for Armenia, also revealed the suppressed Armenian emotion of France. Since that time, France has been constantly making statements that demonstrate its hatred against Azerbaijan and may even disrupt diplomatic relations with Azerbaijan. The last such statement was made during France's demonstrative expression of hatred against Azerbaijan at the Chisinau meeting. France was actually making the biggest mistake in history. Although the Azerbaijani authorities did not take Macron's policy very seriously, it was an extremely big political mistake for France, which demonstrates itself as an influential force in Europe.

According to the official website of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun, Macron, in particular, stated that he entreated in a meeting with the Armenian lobby that he puts more pressure on Azerbaijan’s President than Pashinyan and he is the only one who has a clear position on the Karabakh issue. It goes without saying that the state of Azerbaijan will not remain silent about this and has never remained silent...over this statement, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry summoned French Ambassadress to Azerbaijan for further clarification of the issue.

French-Azerbaijani diplomatic relations are currently facing a big dilemma: either France, which is ready to sacrifice everything for Armenia, or France, which follows the right policy and abandons the wrong principles regarding Karabakh.

In a comment on the above issues for Azernews, political analyst, head of Azerbaijan-based think tank Samir Hummabatov noted that there are 2 reasons behind France’s being so active in the Karabakh issue: first of all, it is related to some internal factors; as is known, the Armenian lobby is strong in France and has the power to influence the French government. Secondly, it is a matter of France's traditional foreign policy of colonialism.

“France wants to form the influence which it lost in Africa, in the South Caucasus. It should be taken into account that after the Second Karabakh War, with the collapse of the Minsk Group, France completely disappeared here. I should also mention that in October 2020, the French parliament's desire to recognize the Karabakh economic region of Azerbaijan as a so-called republic also completely deprived it of stepping in these territories. France's appetite for the South Caucasus has reawakened and it is trying to return here with every effort. Because, Karabakh is one of the most optimal options for it,” Humabatov said.

Responding to the question of why France aims to damage its relationship with the strongest country of the region in terms of its economy and military capacity, the expert stressed that in fact, France is trying to strengthen its position through Armenia.

“For 23 years, France tried to establish a tough position in the region as the co-chairman of the Minsk Group of the OSCE. However, the Second Karabakh War took away all the chances from its hands. In such a case, France saw that Azerbaijan was expelling it from the region. And as a second solution, it began to take another policy of manipulation, creating political sabotage in the region via Armenia. The result is obvious. Due to Armenia, France is one of the states that damaged its relation with Azerbaijan,” he said.

As for possible damage to the economic relationship between France and Azerbaijan, he pointed out that despite there being certain intersections between economics and politics, they are completely separate from each other. The political analyst emphasized that France knows very well that another way to stay in the region is to continue its economic maneuvers.

“Therefore, today French company Total Energy performs projects in the country. However, the presence of Total in Azerbaijan also gives us some leverage. It should also be taken into account that France is one of the influential countries in the EU. In other words, it is one of the locomotives of the EU. On the other hand, together with Iran, Russia and Armenia, France forms a strange quartet. Although there are certain differences in French policy, it maintains relations via Total - maximum is trying not to spoil the economic relations with Azerbaijan. The fact that Total is also interested in green energy indicates that France may need this energy in the future. As is known, France has already lost its uranium deposits in Africa and is trying to replace it with something else,” he said.

Samir Humbatov noted that Total is a multinational company and the company performs projects all over the world. Moreover, Azerbaijan does not mingle policy with the economy. Azerbaijan conducts politics in a normal, lawful manner. Of course, the removal of Total company from here is within the powers of the state of Azerbaijan. If France continues its non-constructive position by taking very provocative steps, it may reconsider its activity here.

“I don't think that France can influence Azerbaijan in any way. This is not a small issue. It is a big issue. Also, France has neither an army nor any military infrastructure in the region. Therefore, France has no possibility to influence Azerbaijan in any way. It is possible that France can help Armenia with any military equipment. I do not rule it out. However, I do not think that France will have an army that will face Azerbaijan here. No matter how strong the French army is, it is not in a position to face Azerbaijan in terms of military performance and military combat. Therefore, I think that France will not do anything other than simply irritating and psychologically influencing from the outside,” he added.

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Qabil Ashirov is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on Twitter: @g_Ashirov

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