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Elnur Enveroglu

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The recent heaviest earthquake hit southeastern Turkiye and northern Syria has been a nightmare for millions in the world. Many people think it could recur at any time and many speculations concerning the causes of earthquakes run through both social and mass media.

Social media jungle

Numerous social media ‘experts' and influencers share opinions that the earthquake in Turkiye and Syria would have a sequence in Azerbaijan. This has also caused huge anxiety among the population and as the result, many have been prejudiced to sell their apartments in high-rise buildings, in particular, in Baku and many other cities. However, according to the Azerbaijan National Academy of Sciences, the seismic situation in the territory of the republic is monitored by the seismic station network of the Republic Seismological Service Centre under ANAS, and currently, the seismicity in the country is low.

Should we believe in the fact about Human-induced earthquakes?

Induced seismicity is typically earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on Earth's crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. A few sites regularly have larger quakes, such as The Geysers geothermal plant which often takes place in California with an average of 4 magnitude events.

As regards the recent heavy earthquakes in Turkiye, this has been a reason for many rumors circulating among the population.

Azerbaijani academician Fakhreddin Gadirov says the information about the earthquake in Turkiye being human-induced is no more than gossip. The expert confirms it as impossible adding that even the sun and the moon may have an effect on natural phenomena, however, this conjecture is not based on any facts yet.

Rumors promote Armenian provocations

As rumors grow about the earthquake Armenian provocations become further active on social media. Thus, after the earthquake in Turkiye, the Armenian media intruded on social networks with rumors that strong earthquakes will occur in the centre of Baku. This was followed by witnessing a number of false news even in the Second Karabakh war, in which Armenia tried to cover up their defeat on the battlefield and their perished fighting spirit with "fake" news. It seems that they still do not give up their malicious and fraudulent intentions.

It is beyond doubt that Armenians want to create anxiety among the population of Azerbaijan. However, they forget that in the age of know-how technologies, it has been very easy to detect the “fake news” disseminated by Armenian provocateurs.

How to predict the earthquake

Many experts and seismologists say it is impossible to give an exact forecast about earthquakes.

As regards the earthquakes in Turkiye, the scientists say it is the most active period of the planet earth in the past 20 years.

"The activation of the African plateau also caused the activation of the Arabian plateau. As a result, we are witnessing such earthquakes in the region and it seems that they will continue. The aftershocks of the earthquakes in Turkiye are still ongoing. It is true that it is impossible to predict the time when an earthquake will occur, but we have to learn to live with it. We believe that the earthquake in Khoy was also a result of the activation of the Arabian plateau."

Azerbaijani academician Fakraddin Gadirov has told this in his comment to local media.

Another expert, Head of the Republican Seismological Service Centre Gurban Yetishmishli has refused that fact about the imminence of an earthquake in Azerbaijan. He stressed that the epicenter of the earthquake is quite far from Azerbaijan;

“Therefore, this event cannot affect or wake up the seismogenic centres of the country.”

The expert added that there is no reason for the population to panic. Earthquakes are recorded every day in our country. This is a natural process. But most of the impulses are not felt. So, it means a strong earthquake is not expected in Azerbaijan in near future.

Another concern is the buildings left since the former Soviet time, and those are being built in and around the city and in some suburban areas with modern technologies as per experts. However, some residents think majority of high-rise buildings may not be durable to earthquakes of the same magnitude hit regions in Turkiye.

According to real estate expert Ramil Osmanli, who made a statement on the matter to the local media, said that the buildings being built now are more resistant to earthquakes than the buildings built during the Soviet era. He said over the past years due to strong supervision of construction processes many buildings in Baku and outside have been brought to standards. Giving more details of its technical aspects, the expert added that the buildings are connected to each other both vertically and horizontally from the basement which makes it more durable against the strongest earthquakes.

The fact that the magic of the latest technology somehow guarantees the lives of many people from the deadliest tremors, no one is insured nonetheless. The main thing to be always cautious and stick to basic rules when there is an earthquake:

Stand under a doorway or a corner in the room Never panic rushing in a crowded area in a building Crawl under the bed if there is less chance to escape a quake-hit building Move away from buildings, utility wires, sinkholes, and fuel and gas lines Remember that the greatest danger from falling debris is just outside doorways and close to outer walls of buildings.

Finally, as mentioned above yielding panic may throw us into more danger than we approach every natural disaster pragmatically. This is also not a mere solace that the earthquake in Turkiye may not have consequences in Azerbaijan. However, believing in prejudice of unknown sources about earthquakes will keep us suffering from such a nightmare.

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Elnur Enveroglu is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow him on @ElnurMammadli1

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