Azernews.Az

By Aynur Karimova

Azerbaijan’s GDP growth rate is forecasted at 1.5 percent in 2015, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s report on regional economic prospects, published on January 19, said.

In its September report, EBRD predicted the country’s economic growth at 3 percent in the current year.

“Huge stocks of foreign exchange reserves at the Central Bank and the State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan will mitigate the impact of potential external shocks, however the growth of non-oil sector alone is unlikely to lead to the overall growth rate stability,” EBRD noted.

Meanwhile, the GDP growth rate of Azerbaijan is one of the highest ones in the Eastern Europe and Caucasus. For example, GDP growth rate of Armenia and Moldova is forecasted at zero percent, Belarus-1.5 percent, and Russia-4.8 percent.

Georgia, the economy of which has less dependence on Russia, will see economic growth rate at the level of 4.2 percent.

EBRD also predicts that 2015 will become a hard year for Eastern Europe and Caucasus region.

“The situation in the region countries will depend on the overall impact of the predicted negative economic growth in Russia, the geopolitical tensions in the region, structural constraints and recent currency fluctuations that will negatively affect the dynamics of trade operations and the dollarization of the banking sector and so on,” EBRD stressed.

The growth in the Eastern Europe and Caucasus region (excluding Ukraine) and Central Asia will slow down due to close economic ties with Russia.

“Stagnation is expected in Armenia and Moldova, and recession in Belarus. Decrease of prices for commodity will have a negative impact on the economy of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan,” the bank’s experts believe.

The Asian Development Bank predicts Azerbaijan’s GDP growth at 3.5 percent, the International Monetary Fund-at 4.3 percent and the World Bank-at 4.1 percent in 2015.

Azerbaijan's Social-Economic Development Concept, developed by Economy and Industry Ministry, said the real GDP growth in the country will be 5.2 percent. This figure is predicted to reach 59.4 billion manats in 2015.

Aynur Karimova is AzerNews’ staff journalist, follow her on Twitter: @Aynur_Karimova

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