Azernews.Az

By Aynur Jafarova

Presidents of Turkmenistan and Pakistan, Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov and Asif Ali Zardari, discussed a draft of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project at a recent meeting in Ashgabat.

The sides expressed mutual confidence that strategic cooperation will continue within large-scale projects, including TAPI.

According to Turkmen media, the laying of the pipeline will not only contribute to the economic prosperity of the participating countries, but also act as a powerful factor for peace and stability in the region.

Gas for Afghanistan

The TAPI pipeline project with design capacity of 33 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year will extend from Galkhynysh -- the largest gas field in Turkmenistan -- through the Afghan cities of Herat and Kandagar to the final point, a settlement on the Pakistani-Indian border.

The basic document for the promotion of the TAPI project is the Ashgabat interstate agreement on the commencement of actual implementation of the TAPI project signed in late 2010 by the four participating countries.

In fall 2012, Turkmenistan held a series of international road shows for TAPI with the participation of the Asian Development Bank. It was reported that Chevron, Exxon Mobil, BP, BG Group, RWE, and Petronas expressed plans to participate in the project.

In May 2012, the Turkmen government entered into an agreement for the sale of natural gas with India's GAIL Ltd. A memorandum of understanding was signed with Afghanistan as well.

The main guarantor of the agreement is the Asian Development Bank.

Shell is also interested in the project, and Bangladesh is seeking to join TAPI as a buyer. Also, South Korea's state-run Korea Gas Corp (KOGAS) has voiced offers on the TAPI project in Ashgabat.

'Global project'

U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Robert Blake believes that by connecting abundant energy reserves in Turkmenistan with rapidly rising demand for that energy in South Asia, TAPI can be transformative for the region.

According to experts, TAPI is not only a regional project envisaging the transportation of Turkmen gas, but also a global project. The leading role in this project belongs not to the countries through whose territories the pipeline will run, but to the countries with influential and strategic position in the world politics, analysts conclude.

An attempt to lay TAPI is not just "great energy policy", but also a great policy in the region, expert from Washington Yuri Sigov believes.

"When constructing new oil and gas pipelines, each Central Asian state becomes not only a receiver or transit country of raw materials, but also, it automatically turns into an influential political player -- and not only to its nearest geographical neighbors, but also in a global context," Sigov says.

Negotiations on the TAPI project have been underway for at least 15 years and interest in it has dramatically increased recently.

"Of course, special attention was paid to TAPI after the operation of the U.S. Army and its allies in Afghanistan. And now, when the presence of coalition forces in this long-suffering country ends, the idea to transfer Turkmen gas to India is again at the center of the "energy agenda" of the entire Asia," Sigov said.

TAPI is currently at an important stage of development. Talks are underway on the establishment of the project consortium, financing and security, and in particular the security of the pipeline section crossing the troubled Afghanistan. The main questions are who will finance the project and how the gas markets will be ready to "welcome" this pipeline.

The main problems in its implementation are instability in Afghanistan, the situation after the troops' withdrawal, problematic relations between India and Pakistan and the need to maintain investment security.

Benefit for Turkmenistan

According to experts, the implementation of the TAPI project will strengthen the independence of Turkmenistan and its gas supplies to world markets will increase significantly.

Turkmenistan decided to actively promote TAPI by making public presentations of the project in Europe, the U.S. and Asia.

The U.S supports this project due to the upcoming withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan and the necessity of boosting the country's economy.

According to Sigov, construction of the TAPI pipeline is beneficial for Turkmenistan in terms of reducing the dependence of Ashgabat on gas exports through the Russian route as well as maintaining political stability in Afghanistan, a neighbor of Turkmenistan, after the withdrawal of international troops from the country.

Earlier Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov stressed the importance of the TAPI project in the formation of the global energy security architecture.

According to him, the implementation of the TAPI project will contribute to boosting the economic potential of all member states of the TAPI project, as well as strengthening of peace, stability and security in the region.

He said construction of this transnational gas pipeline in addition to purely economic benefits, will allow participating countries to solve a number of pressing social and humanitarian problems including those related to the creation of new jobs, formation of necessary transport, communications and social infrastructure.

The weakest member of TAPI

Instability remains a major obstacle for the implementation of the TAPI project and Afghanistan remains its weakest and most unpredictable member, experts believe.

Several experts think the implementation of the TAPI project depends on the way the situation unfolds in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of NATO troops in 2014.

Given the proposed withdrawal of the U.S. troops from Afghanistan in 2014, it is unknown who will ensure the security of the pipeline, General Director of the Russian National Energy Institute, Sergei Pravosudov, believes.

Maintenance of investments' security in Afghanistan is another problem for investors. Nobody would guess what will happen after the troops' withdrawal. Neither American, nor Indian or Pakistani companies would have an active business in Afghanistan if security of their investment is not provided.

However, observers say that the main benefit of the project is an opportunity to contribute to the stabilization of Afghanistan and its implementation could contribute to the rehabilitation process in the country as it will create jobs and provide Afghanistan with guaranteed income from transit.

Assistant Secretary Robert Blake believes that Afghanistan's role in the TAPI project is especially significant as the energy and transportation corridors connecting South Asia and Eurasia via Afghanistan will play an increasingly important role for the economic future of Afghanistan and the region.

Strained India-Pakistan relations

Experts believe that the problematic relations between Pakistan and India are among the main problems in implementing TAPI.

However, according to some observers, the construction of a gas pipeline from Central Asia to Pakistan and India seems to be quite reasonable and technologically feasible; even if there is constant rivalry between India and Pakistan, the two countries are quite able to agree on pipeline issues.

Participation of Pakistan and India in the TAPI project is in the interest of Turkmenistan as the financial support of the two countries is necessary for its implementation, experts say.

Potential participants

China would be a major participant of the TAPI project as it is interested in investing in Afghanistan's economy and joining the project, Sigov believes.

Several experts think that Russia also shows an interest in the project, while others believe that Moscow will not participate at this project and try to impede its realization.